While I was busy conversing with President Abdullah Gül, in through the surrounding crowd came Micheline Calmy-Rey, the foreign minister of Switzerland, who said: “It is so nice to see you together. I hope that this happens regularly.” But let me leave aside the pleasing social aspect of events and turn to the real subject keeping minds busy. What is the real international background of normalization? What are the reasoning, motives and calculations of all of the actors involved? What is the best-case scenario if normalization proceeds as planned?
I will leave my space to a respected scholar, an outstanding expert on the Caucasus with a vast knowledge on Russia, to seek the response. In a recent conversation, Professor Dennis Papazian analyzed the outcome, and with his kind permission, I will share it with my readers. Note that most of his assessment is certainly based on information.
Some important excerpts from our conversation:
“With both Russia and the US now pressing strong, the border will be opened within the next year. All there needs to be is ‘movement,' not settlement of NK [Nagorno-Karabakh]. Who can stand up for long against pressure applied by both the US and Russia together?”
“Russia has already ordered trains from Poland to run on the Russian-controlled railway route in Armenia to Turkey. Russia sees the border opening as a Russian-Turkish opening. Russia wants an open road almost directly to Turkey for Russia's sake, not Armenia's. Turkey understands that. But, of course, Turkey will extract the highest price it can gain for the opening. That is natural. The big trade will be between Russia and Turkey and somewhat between Iran and Turkey; Armenia is small change. Eastern Turkey (historic Armenia) stands to gain from this situation. The railway from Iran to Armenia is now finished as is the oil pipeline, both of which will eventually reach Russia.”
“Turkey will follow Turkey's interest, not that of Azerbaijan -- open borders and trade with all its neighbors and entry into the European Union. The issue is how to urge Azerbaijan along and placate the Turkish public. That is taking time.”
“Russia benefits from the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and it has from the beginning. My guess is that Russia must guarantee the security of Nagorno-Karabakh before the Armenians will give up the occupied territories, except for Lachin, which they cannot give up. [İlham] Aliyev recently said Armenia has agreed to give up five of them, one more than the earlier four agreed to. He needs a way to save face. Nagorno-Karabakh has no economic value, but the territories are necessary for transit. Azerbaijan wants the East-West road more secure from its point of view. It want guarantees for transit to Nakhchivan.”
“I don't mean to be unkind, but Turkey has dug its own hole by basing its foreign policy with Armenia and Azerbaijan for so many years on emotions and not on interests. It is Turkey's responsibility to help dig its way out of its own hole.”
“Sarksyan now speaks of Turkey not dealing with 3 million Armenians in Armenia but 10 million Armenians. He has decoupled Nagorno-Karabakh and the border opening. He has separated genocide recognition from the border opening. He has agreed to a general commission to solve problems not dedicated to a discussion of genocide but which will inevitably deal with it. It will necessitate Turkey getting rid of Article 301, so Turkish scholars can be involved. He has accepted the present borders. It is a no-brainer. Treaties were signed, and the borders can only be changed by new treaties, acceptable to both sides.”
“I think it is pretty clear that the ‘occupied territories' are outside Nagorno-Karabakh proper since the real contention is over who occupies Kelbajar and Lachin, although the term is obfuscated for domestic political reasons. Only the legal status of Nagorno-Karabakh is in dispute, not the de facto status. It is a question of what it is to be called, not what it is in reality. It is also a question of the right of Azeri return, although few would want to do it. Even the US quietly admits Nagorno-Karabakh will never again be occupied by Azeri troops but will be governed by Armenians.”
“There is, of course, much opposition in Turkey because of pride, fear, anger, arrogance, prejudice, tradition, ignorance, etc., but the government is clear-eyed and sees Turkey's self-interest. It is also true that Turkey has a new, highly educated intellectual class that wants Turkey to have universal respectability. After wealth, people want respectability. The new class is strongly represented in foreign policy establishment and, to some extent, the press. The old Kemalists, conservatives and military are slowly losing their grip. So, yes, there is a political struggle within Turkey between the old and the new. We shall see who wins. I think the new will win, but who can be sure?”
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