Papadopoulos serves Turkish interests

This does not mean that Denktaş purposely played into the hands of the Greek Cypriots, but rather that the Ankara-imposed policies favored the status quo in preference to a solution. 2004 marked a major turning point in Ankara's position, with a major shift by the political leadership towards a genuine desire for a political solution to the decades-long crisis. Having received strong signals from Ankara, the Turkish Cypriots overwhelmingly supported the UN Annan plan for reunification of the island, while a Greek Cypriot majority rejected it.

The EU decision to admit Greek Cyprus as a member so soon after its rejection of the UN plan was, as German Chancellor Angela Merkel recently pointed out, a big mistake. Further, the Greek position resulted in a significant loss of leverage by the international community in the imposition of the plan. In the absence of such leverage, the Greek Cypriots have been recognized as the sole government of the island of Cyprus, despite the absence of a solution, and they have been using their EU membership card to impose their policies on Turkey as well.

Throughout the whole process of the 2004 referenda Tassos Papadopoulos, the Greek Cypriot president, has been playing a significant role in continuing the Cypriot stasis. He, in a way, has become Denktaş's Greek double. In Feb 2008 the Greek Cypriots will choose a new president and Papadopoulos is seeking a fresh five-year term. Other candidates include Demitris Christofias of the communist Progressive Party of the Working People (AKEL) and Ioannis Kasoulides, an independent supported by the right-wing Democratic Rally Party (DISI). Papadopoulos is leading the field according to the latest poll conducted by Symmetron Market Research and reported by the daily Phileleftheros.

I have strong indications that if the polls continue to favor Papadopoulos, a second presidential term will be welcomed in Ankara. At a time when no breakthrough is expected over the coming months on Cyprus, it is ironic that a guy like Papadopoulos (now implicated in money laundering) who has been playing a critical role in the blocking of any solution, should be serving Turkish interests in the Turkish north of the island and in Ankara.

"Even if Turkey allows Greek ships and planes to enter Turkish ports and airports nobody in Turkey really expects the EU to admit Turkey as a full member of the union. Not France or Germany, nor Austria, will allow Turkish entry. There are serious divisions over Turkey within the union and I do not expect a breakthrough on Cyprus to take priority over other extant wars and crises. The best scenario at this point for Ankara is the re-election of Papadopoulos as a man who is not after a solution," stated an unnamed Turkish diplomat.

The EU has already lost its deterrent against the Greek Cypriots' proposed blocking of Turkish progress towards accession, in addition to a solution, since Cyprus's admission to the EU, stressed the same diplomat in a rather pessimistic tone.

So, should the Greek Cypriot stance continue to be against progress in the stalemate, and it has a direct effect on Turkish membership talks, Ankara can easily continue with the existing Ankara criteria instead of moving to the Copenhagen criteria, regardless of EU membership. This is not going to be easy, as past experience has proven, as Turks have never pushed forward with democratic reforms in the absence of EU pressure.

The solid mandate received by the Justice and Development Party (AK Party) in the 22 July elections should provide an important incentive for the ruling party to push for reforms. Even if no breakthrough can be expected on Cyprus in the coming months, Ankara can still go ahead with the reform packages required for the introduction of the rule of law in the country regardless of EU prospects.