Allawi, who served as interim prime minister from 2004-05, could still lose his narrow edge over Maliki, a Shiite whose law-and-order message has put him ahead in seven of 18 provinces, including the electoral prizes Baghdad and Basra.But no matter what the final outcome, Allawi’s strong showing, particularly among minority Sunnis resentful of the dominance of Shiite religious parties since 2003, has broad implications for the formation of the next government and stability in the country once US troops withdraw.
Allawi’s cross-sectarian Iraqiya list is leading in five provinces, and his nationwide edge is only 9,000 votes. Trailing the front runners are the Shi’ite Iraqi National Alliance (INA) and Kurdish parties which dominate Iraq’s Kurdish north.
It is too early to say who Iraq’s next coalition government will include, and the weeks or months of charged negotiations ahead may become even more fraught if, as the close race suggests, the results are challenged by those who lose out.
Ali al-Adeeb, a close Maliki ally, said the premier’s State of Law bloc had been tipped off by election workers that votes were being manipulated in favour of a competitor he declined to name. The bloc has asked for a recount in Baghdad, where Maliki’s lead has steadily narrowed.
“Only when a recount and review is completed can we decide if IHEC’s tally of our votes is accurate or not,” he said. The Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC) said the count was fair and included multiple checks against fraud.
“The most recent preliminary results show a close race between major lists. That explains their fears and misgivings,” said Karim al-Tamimi, an IHEC commissioner.
IHEC, along with UN officials advising them, have downplayed allegations of fraud, which until now had mainly come from Allawi’s camp. Almost 2,000 complaints have been logged, fewer than in Iraq’s provincial polls in January 2009. “Systemic fraud is virtually impossible,” a western official said on condition of anonymity, suggesting the sheer complexity of Iraq’s new voting system was itself an obstacle to fraud.
The uncertainty risks exacerbating divisions and fuelling conflict in the crucial weeks and months ahead, particularly if the long-dominant Sunni minority feels the next government does not reflect its interests. Marginalization of Sunnis has been a major driver of violence since the US-led invasion to oust Saddam Hussein in 2003.
Benzer Haberler 
World
