US trend forecaster predicts ‘bright future’ for Turkey
Speaking to Sunday’s Zaman last week, he drew connections to Turkey’s ability to combine the opportunities of its past with the opportunities of the present day, indicating confidence that the country obviously has the potential to play a prominent role in the future of the world by relying on this capability.
In regards to expectations for the global economy in 2010, Celente says he expects a big financial collapse this year. “For instance, when you look at the world’ largest economy, the budget deficit in the US has reached 10.6 percent of gross domestic product [GDP]. The measures that have been taken so far can only serve as a temporary cure for current problems. The real situation is far worse than the politicians’ expectations as regards the recovery of the financial markets.”
When looking at Turkey’s position in this picture, Celente argues, Turkish society -- as well as some others in Europe -- is more experienced in surviving hard times due to past experiences. “But people in the US, for instance... Believe me, they have no idea what it takes for such endurance. Debt per capita is quite high in the US, and very few actually have the ability to repay their debts.”
Mentioning the recent emergence of financial problems in Greece, which triggered the resurrection of concerns about the global crisis at a time when many had started to believe it was on the wane, he said some EU countries may have to return to national currencies in the near future. “Some countries have already started discussing this option.” He recalled that since the switch to the euro, he had been suggesting that such a need would arise one day. Besides that, the integration of the euro is not the only problem that the union has to deal with, Celente said, pointing to the equally serious issue of growing migration. He said the most recent examples of such problems were experienced by Italy and that the EU governments would adopt more aggressive policies in a bid to combat illegal migration to their countries in the years to come.
Asked about Turkey’s chances of entering the EU, he said it is a disadvantage that such big countries like France are against it. “Turkey is a very important power in her region, and some countries that claim leadership in the EU are uneasy with this fact.”
According to Celente, Turkey has contributed to peace efforts in the Middle East as an effective mediator and has the potential to maintain such a role. “This is not only limited to problems in the Middle East, but any problem elsewhere on earth. And the world is in need of such initiative,” he said, adding that Turkey would undertake a peacekeeping role and address problems more effectively than any Western government could.
Turkey will see a very bright future in the coming decades, Celente noted, adding that the country has a rich heritage of civilization, arts and spirituality. “Turkey owes this potential to a long history. The country has inherited the legacy of one of the world’s few large empires. Turkish society still preserves this heritage, which is continuing to contribute to enriching the country both socially and culturally. Strong family ties along with deep-rooted traditions are additional advantages to this end.”
Underlining that a society’s future lies in this capability to carry its traditional values and cultural diversity into the future, he said Turkey is one of the few countries that actually does this. “Turkey values old values more than some Western countries do. This is a prominent factor.” Celente said there are some societies that value money more than cultural background as they try to establish a new civilization. “However, those civilizations built merely on material grounds are likely to collapse relatively faster.“
In regards to his predictions in the long run, he said the world could eventually find a compromise to end wars, particularly over energy sources. Underlining that the most promising area of investment will be renewable energy sources, Celente said alternative sources which have not been widely used thus far such as fusion energy would play a more useful role than solar, geothermal or wind power. “Such revolutionary developments in energy sources will be the sole and most effective factor in maintaining peace and preventing a new ‘big depression’ in the markets in the 21st century.”
The founder and director of the Trends Research Institute, Celente is known for forecasts of social, business, fashion, consumer and entertainment trends. Celente forecast the popularity of gourmet coffee years before the birth of some giant coffee chains, one of his most famous predictions. The institute today provides trend research studies to businesses, governments and individuals worldwide.