The French consul general in the German city of Munich hosted talks between Armenia's Serzh Sarksyan and Azerbaijan's Ilham Aliyev on Sunday. The Munich meeting was the sixth such encounter this year, with Azerbaijani ally Turkey pressing for progress before it seals a historic rapprochement deal with neighboring Armenia. Oil-producing Azerbaijan upped the ante just hours before the Munich meeting, with Aliyev warning the meeting between the presidents in Munich would be “decisive.”
The Azerbaijani president also said Baku has not ruled out the use of military force if talks with Armenia on resolving a long-standing territorial dispute do not produce any result.
Before the meeting, French Co-chairman of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) Minsk Group Bernard Fassier said the meeting would be closed to the media. It was also noted that the leaders were to discuss the withdrawal of Armenian troops from the occupied regions adjacent to Nagorno-Karabakh, the temporary status of Nagorno-Karabakh, the division of the corridor connecting Nagorno-Karabakh to Armenia, the final legal status of Nagorno-Karabakh through the principle of self-determination and the return of internally displaced persons (IDPs) to their homes during the meeting.
Azerbaijan’s Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov, Armenian Foreign Minister Edward Nalbandian, OSCE Minsk Group co-chairmen Fassier, Robert Bradtke (US) and Yuri Merzlyakov (Russia) and the special envoy of the OSCE chairman, Anji Kaspshik, also participated in the meeting.
Backed by Christian Armenia, ethnic Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh threw off Muslim Azerbaijan rule during fighting that erupted in 1991 as the Soviet Union headed towards collapse. Some 30,000 people died before a cease-fire in 1994.
The territory of 145,000 people wants recognition as an independent state, but 15 years of mediation has failed to produce a peace deal. Sporadic exchanges of fire continue to threaten the outbreak of war in a key oil and gas transit region to the West.
The Caucasus conflict was thrust back into the diplomatic spotlight this year by a deal between Turkey and Armenia to overcome a century of hostility stemming from the World War I killings of Anatolian Armenians by Ottoman Turks.
Ankara and Yerevan have signed accords to establish diplomatic ties and open their mutual border, which Turkey closed in 1993 in solidarity with Azerbaijan during the war.
The deal carries huge significance regarding Turkey’s diplomatic clout in the strategic Caucasus region, its bid to join the European Union and for landlocked Armenia’s crisis-hit economy.
But Ankara, stung by an Azerbaijani backlash over the thaw and bogged down in protracted negotiations over Azerbaijani gas supplies, says it wants to see progress on Nagorno-Karabakh before it ratifies the deal. Armenia rejects any link between the issues.
“That meeting must play a decisive role in the process of negotiations,” Aliyev said late on Friday, in comments broadcast by state television on Saturday and in reference to the meeting in Germany.
“If that meeting ends without result, then our hopes in negotiations will be exhausted and then we are left with no other option,” he said, saying Azerbaijan had the right to use force to take back the mountain region. “Azerbaijan is spending billions on buying new weapons, hardware, strengthening its position on the line of contact,” he said at a meeting with Azerbaijanis made refugees by the conflict.
“We are doing that because we never excluded and we do not exclude that option. We have the full right to liberate our land by military means.”
Aliyev often threatens using force to take back the territory, at the heart of a key region for transiting its oil and gas to the West. Analysts say the saber-rattling should be seen in the context of Azerbaijani anger over Turkey’s deal with Armenia.
However, Western diplomats warn the frontline, a warren of minefields and trenches manned by snipers, is inherently unstable and it would take little for the frequent clashes there to escalate.
The trio of mediators from the US, Russia and France working under the OSCE say they are making progress in the talks, but analysts and Western diplomats say neither side appears ready to commit to difficult concessions and sell them to their people.
The mediators are working on a deal that would see the return of many of the Azerbaijani districts held by Armenians, greater international legitimacy for the Nagorno-Karabakh authorities and a future popular vote to decide on its status.
Armenia submits protocols to Constitutional Court
Armenian media, meanwhile, reported that Sarksyan’s office last week submitted the two protocols on normalization of bilateral relations with Turkey to the country’s Constitutional Court.
“A full-court session must be convened within 20 days to determine a hearing date for the protocols,” the court’s chief of staff, Aroushan Hakopyan, was quoted as saying by the Armenian media. “If within the 20-day time frame a consensus is not reached, the decision to convene a hearing is extended by 10 additional days. If a month passes from the time of submission and a decision is not reached, the protocols must be returned to the president’s office or the court must decide on further discussions,” the reports said, adding that the court is also tasked with ruling on the constitutionality of the protocols.
The protocols need to be ratified in the Turkish and Armenian parliaments to enter into force. But Turkish leaders have suggested that their Parliament is unlikely to ratify the agreements without a breakthrough in international efforts to resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
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