Yunus Arıkan: Turkey can be key to opening Copenhagen deadlock

“Currently, there is a lack of trust between developed and developing countries. Turkey can show the leadership that can narrow this gap in the sense that there are some countries in between these two groups. Turkey can lead the definition of a new group of countries which would have responsibilities that are less binding than those for developed countries but more ambitious than major emitters,” he told Today's Zaman for Monday Talk. The latest round of international talks on climate change ended on Nov. 6 without resolving major disputes over a new global climate pact and how to pay for it.

The new agreement is a follow-up to the 1997 Kyoto Protocol, which set binding targets for industrialized nations to cut their carbon emissions by a collective 5 percent below 1990 levels during the first commitment period from 2008 to 2012.

“Everybody knows that the current deadlock will be resolved by political leaders, not by bureaucrats,” Arıkan said.

But he added that it is not enough for Turkey to say that it wants to maintain its current status, which frees it from reduction commitments. Turkey, South Korea and Mexico are members of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), widely considered to be a group of industrialized nations, but do not have emission reduction commitments under the current Kyoto regime until 2012.

“Turkey should be proactive and specify in which group of countries it will be classified in the new setup after the end of the Kyoto Protocol in 2012. Otherwise, it will be vulnerable to surprises that could occur in Copenhagen,” he said.

Per capita annual emissions in Turkey are 4.5 tons compared to 23.5 tons in the United States and 11 tons in Denmark. But its emissions are increasing fast as the country continues to grow.

The US refused to adopt the treaty, even though it was the world’s largest carbon emitter. Japan and the European Union have announced cuts of 25 and 30 percent, while the US target is a less ambitious 7 percent cut, pending the passage of climate legislation in the US Senate.

Thousands of officials, advisers, diplomats, campaigners and media personnel from about 200 countries will be joined by heads of state on Dec. 6-18 in one of the most significant gatherings in history.

Arıkan elaborated on the issue when answering our questions. We talked last week on Nov. 12 at the “Climate Change, Global Threats & Low Carbon Prosperity toward Copenhagen” conference in İstanbul, at which climate experts from academia, civil society and relevant ministries were present to discuss where Turkey and other countries stand. The conference was put together by the Turkish Parliament and an EU parliamentary initiative, Globe EU, based in Brussels. It was hosted by Haluk Özdalga, chairman of the Turkish Parliament’s Environment Commission.

You say Turkey can end the Copenhagen deadlock. How did you reach that conviction?

Currently, there is a lack of trust between developed and developing countries. Turkey can show the leadership that can narrow this gap in the sense that there are some countries in between these two groups. Turkey can lead the definition of a new group of countries which would have responsibilities that are less binding than developed countries but more ambitious than major emitters.

Such as?

China, Brazil and India, which are home to billions of people. The question has been whether or not they would be able to adapt to a low-carbon economy. Actually, China has made extensive and often dramatic efforts to do so. However, China and other developing countries are rightfully asking, “Have the OECD countries done their job of reducing their emissions when you are asking us to do it?” And there is the United States [which was responsible for 36.1 percent of the world’s 1990 emission levels], which has not ratified the Kyoto Protocol. And there are countries such as Turkey, South Korea and Mexico, which are members of the OECD but at the same time do not have emission reduction commitments under the current Kyoto regime until 2012.

Do you expect a change of direction at the meeting in Copenhagen from developing or developed countries?

No. Developing countries will continue to say that they cannot bear the burden if the developed world does not take more responsibility. Mexico and South Korea, who are members of the OECD but do not have commitments under the Kyoto Protocol, have already set voluntary targets for themselves. So who is left? It is Turkey, a country which does not have a mitigation commitment. And it is not clear how Turkey will be categorized in the new regime.

‘Turkey shouldn’t be left outside’

What are the possible scenarios?

There are a few things that could happen. If Turkey is included as a developed country with strict commitments, it might not want to approve this new proposal as it might be exposed to political and economic pressures which will force Turkey to accept commitments which are not economically feasible. The worst scenario is that the world is heading toward a low-carbon economy, where even China and the United States are involved, but Turkey is outside.

Why do you think Turkey should not stay outside?

Turkey is among the top 20 countries in terms of its economy and population. Like the rest of the world, it cannot depend on fossil fuels for its energy needs. Turkey has renewable energy resources such as wind, sun, bio-mass and hydro energy. There is a huge efficiency potential in Turkey as well. If these resources can be mobilized in collaboration with the rest of the world, it will be easier for Turkey to shift to a low-carbon economy.

Do you think the Turkish leadership can do what you have just said?

When I was proposing that Turkey be a party to the Kyoto Protocol without a reduction commitment four years ago, everybody at home and abroad was laughing at me. Now that Turkey has ratified the Kyoto Protocol, the critical issue is what Turkey wants to do in the post-2012 period. Once again, I hear similar responses when I say that Turkey is the key to ending the Copenhagen deadlock, but there is not a better proposal at the table, neither for Turkey nor for the world.

Turkey says it aims to reduce its emissions by 11 percent by 2020. How do you evaluate this?

The figure is not so important. The important thing is how you come to this conclusion. What is the scientific background? Which institution is politically accountable for this decision? What is the stakeholder contribution in this specific target? What is the strategy to negotiate it with the international community? I doubt that whether all these essential elements are clear.

Do you think today’s [Nov. 12] meeting can change this situation?

Yes. Today’s meeting was of historic importance because it was hosted by the Turkish Parliament, which kicked off Turkey’s accession to the Kyoto Protocol in 2007. Remember, until 2008 and even in 2008, Turkish officials were saying that Turkey should forget about the Kyoto Protocol until the year 2030. But in June, this position changed.

‘2007 was a historic year for Turkey’

How did it happen?

The year 2007 was a historic year because politicians were forced to discuss the drought and climate change. Then Haluk Özdalga, chairman of the Turkish Parliament’s Environment Commission, worked hard to convince the political and bureaucratic community to approve the Kyoto Protocol. It was Özdalga, Prime Minister [Recep Tayyip] Erdoğan and the Foreign Ministry who took the risk. With today’s conference, Parliament’s Environment Commission saw a new picture regarding Turkey and the world as far as the climate issue is concerned. It is also true for the international participants, that they saw a different Turkey than the one they already knew. Turkey has until midnight on Dec. 18 to state its position. It is very important that the chairman of the Turkish Parliament’s Environment Commission be in Copenhagen. Everybody knows that the current deadlock will be resolved by political leaders, not by bureaucrats. And it is not enough to say that Turkey just wants to keep its current status. Turkey should be able to define how it wants to take part in the new regime after 2012.

It was Sedat Kadıoğlu, deputy undersecretary of the Ministry of Environment and Forestry, who said today that Turkey’s emission reduction target is 11 percent by 2020 if current reduction efforts continue, and he said they will know more about this after a meeting of the Climate Change Coordination Board in Turkey on Nov. 18. Do you think the figure is likely to change?

Everything can change. The chairman of the Environment Commission will not be indifferent to that meeting. We all heard Özdalga saying today that Turkish industry was extremely opposed to the approval of the Kyoto Protocol and the bureaucracy was not much different. Therefore, Turkey has already taken a leap forward and can do so again. Even if there is no progress at the Nov. 18 meeting, Turkey’s presence in Copenhagen with its Environment Commission chairman or the prime minister would help Turkey take another political risk, but at the same time show the spirit of collaboration at the global level.

You had said Turkey’s role is known by the outside world. In that regard, what is the position of the European Union, which Turkey aspires to be a member of?

The European Union supports that advanced developing countries should take more ambitious action. But the EU has come a long way, too. The EU’s environmental report in 2007 said Turkey should have emission reduction commitments before 2012. But after considering Turkey’s situation, they changed. So negotiating is possible if you really have a point. Turkey can be a driving country to take other similar countries in the OECD along.