Analyst Usul says Europe should bring down walls to ensure security

One reason for this, according to Ali Resul Usul, associate professor at Bahçeşehir University, is that Europeans will soon burn gas from countries such as Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan, Iraq and possibly even Iran when the Nabucco gas pipeline project is realized.

“There are indeed Europeans who desire to adapt to the changing world. In that world, Europe needs to reach out to its eastern neighbors in order to bring stability and democratic rule. This is the way to ensure European security,” he said.

On July 13, the prime ministers of five members of the six-country Nabucco consortium through which the pipeline is planned to run -- Turkey, Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary and Austria -- signed an intergovernmental agreement on the pipeline. The sixth country, Germany, does not have a transit role.

The EU has already declared EU-candidate Turkey its “fourth artery” -- a notion particularly strengthened since the natural gas dispute between Russia and Ukraine in the winter of 2005-2006, further motivating the 27-nation bloc to focus more ambitiously on Nabucco's main object of reducing Europe's dependence on Russian gas. As for Ankara, labeling Nabucco the “project of the 21st century,” it considers the 3,300-kilometer planned pipeline “a permanent and strong tie” with the European bloc. But the EU, by not presenting a clear membership perspective for Turkey, has jeopardized its own security, Usul said.

For Monday Talk, he elaborated on this topic.

Does the proposed Nabucco pipeline really have the potential to strengthen Turkey's ties with the EU?

Turkey is currently negotiating with the EU with the prospect of membership. When we examine the past enlargement policies of the EU, we see some standards and principles applied to candidate countries. One of those principles is that the EU is supposed to carry out a system of meritocracy. In other words, the more reforms a candidate country implements, the more it is ready for membership in the EU. In this system of meritocracy, there is not much place for an argument based on international politics. Secondly, the EU monitors the candidate countries closely. This is another important principle. And lastly, the EU clearly indicates a membership prospective for a candidate country. In other words, there is conditionality for the candidate state, which means that when it meets the membership criteria, it will be a member of the club.

But when we look at the Turkish case, we see that international problems such as the Cyprus issue have a huge impact on Turkey-EU relations.

Exactly. The EU suspended accession negotiations on eight chapters in 2006 because of the Cyprus issue. France alone has refused to open talks on five chapters that it says are directly related to accession. This situation not only kills all the enthusiasm in Turkey about membership prospects but also prevents progress. So the problem of Cyprus, no matter how international and complex, which has not been resolved since the 1950s, becomes an obstacle in Turkey's accession negotiations with the EU even though it is not directly related to the EU's principles on membership.

Ali Resul Usul, EU and democratization expert Currently an associate professor at Bahçeşehir University's department of political science and international relations, he holds two doctorates, one in political science from Bilkent University in 2003 and the other in government from the University of Essex in 2008. He has several publications on the issues of human rights and democratization and the EU's policies in that regard. His book “Democracy in Turkey: The Impact of EU Political Conditionality” (London, Routledge) will be published in 2010.

Are you saying that the rules have been changed when it comes to Turkey's accession to the EU?

This is clear. As the rules changed, Turkey started to seek new strategic arguments to justify the importance of its accession. In other words, Turkey seeks arguments that would show Europe that it is indispensable. We can call this the “return of high politics.” It is possible to evaluate the Nabucco project in this light.

What makes Turkey indispensable when it comes to the Nabucco project?

The Turkish leg of the 3,300-kilometer-long pipeline will be 2,000 kilometers long. This is an important factor in the strategic calculations. Secondly, in the broader context, we can say that Turkey has an increasing influence in the Afro-Eurasia region, which cannot be ignored by Europe.

Is this a viable strategy?

It can be. But this is not commensurate with the principles of being a candidate state to the EU. The candidate country's concerns should indeed focus on meritocracy and political conditionality. But when this dimension is ignored by the European side, then other strategies are involved.

What other strategies are involved in that regard?

One is that Turkey has adopted a multidimensional foreign policy approach. And it has increased its soft-power capabilities. So Turkey is becoming a country that Europe won't be able to refuse easily.

What would happen if Europe did refuse Turkey?

The EU would not openly refuse Turkey. Turkey without a European anchor would be risky for European interests. Turkey without the Western/European perspective would be hazardous to the grand Western/European geo-strategy. Therefore, with this logic, Turkey should be kept in the European harbor. But how do you keep Turkey in this port? Turkey's answer is clear: EU membership. But some influential circles and leaders in the EU reject Turkey's European-ness and Turkey's place in the EU as a fully fledged member and propose for Turkey a sort of low-quality relationship with the EU, such as “privileged partnership.” However, in fact, this sort of proposal to Turkey is not a real proposal. In other words, there is no serious Plan B for Turkey in the EU.

But there is an argument that Turkey risks its EU membership even more by bringing out the foreign policy argument because Europe does not want to be neighbors with the countries to the east and south of Turkey anyway. And Turkey is a buffer zone between Europe and the countries to its east and south.

Valery Giscard d'Estaing, the former French president who prepared the European Constitution, said that Europe would be neighbors with Iran, Iraq and Syria when Turkey became a member of the EU. That is true. And Europe's eastern borders have always been embroiled in problems. But what are Europe's eastern borders? Its northern and southern borders are certain. Its western border is clear, too. But it is hard to draw a border on the east of Europe. Indeed, Europeans try to be away from the Afro-Eurasia region's unstable and complex structure. So, as you said, Europe enjoys Turkey's buffer zone-like position in the region. But this is no longer possible.

Why not?

Because, Austrians will burn Turkmenistan's gas in the future when the Nabucco project is realized. They will also burn gas from Azerbaijan and Iraq, and even from Iran. In today's world, there are indeed Europeans who desire to adapt to the changing world. In that world, Europe needs to reach out to its eastern neighbors in order to bring stability and democratic rule. This is the way to ensure European security.

Do you think Europe gives enough support to democratic development and the rule of law in Turkey?

It is a fact that it is the EU anchor which has enabled Turkey to adopt many democratic reforms. However, the biggest handicap of the EU is that it does not indicate a clear membership target for Turkey. If Europe indicated undoubtedly that Turkey would be a member at the end, Turkish leaders would be more courageous in adopting reforms. But instead of saying this, Europe indicates the opposite. Two powerful members of the EU, France and Germany, are saying that it is only privileged partnership that is suitable for Turkey if there is any membership on the horizon at all! If Turkey had been given a target membership date, then the reform process would have continued with an enthusiastic spirit, the way it was before 2005. After 2005, enthusiasm in the governing elite and people in this regard substantially declined unfortunately.

Nabucco pipeline might discredit ‘clash of civilizations'

While Nabucco remains a project to be started, the South Stream pipeline is in progress. And we see some diplomatic moves such as Russia signing a gas deal with Azerbaijan days before the signing of the Nabucco deal. Plus Russia offered Turkey a role in South Stream. What is happening?

Officially, Russia says Nabucco and South Stream are not rivals of each other but are complementary. This is quite logical. Indeed, Nabucco cannot be an alternative to Russian gas because analysts assert that Europe needs 500 billion cubic meters of natural gas a year, and Nabucco is expected to deliver only 31 billion cubic meters. And most of the gas that Europe has been using comes from Russia. Under these circumstances, Nabucco cannot be an alternative to Russia. Then what is Nabucco?

What is it?

Europe and Russia see gas from different perspectives. Europe sees gas as a commodity that can be bought and sold. On the other hand, Russia sees gas as a trump card. Europe is not worried that it has to use Russian gas. Europe is disturbed because Russia has made clear that it can use gas as a strategic trump card. So Europe is trying to diversify its suppliers, and Nabucco is a small part of that effort. And Russia, even though it does not see Nabucco as an alternative to South Stream, realizes that it was excluded from Nabucco. In addition, Turkey says Nabucco is not against Russia and Russia is welcome to supply gas to Nabucco. So both Turkey and Russia have adopted a policy of cooperation. Russia also realizes that the days of the Cold War are over and it has tried to gain Turkey. After all, Turkey and Russia have established good relations.

As you touched upon briefly before, a shortage of gas supply might be a problem.

Most of the supplies are expected to come from the Shah Deniz field in the Azerbaijani section of the Caspian Sea. Officials are also talking about the possibility of linking Turkmenistan, Iraq and even Iran's natural gas resources to Nabucco; however, it might be difficult to engage with Iran. But there are only two things you can do when you face a difficult country. You can either leave it out or you can take it in so as to have a chance to soften it. And one way to do that would be through involving Iran in the Nabucco pipeline.

You point to a rapprochement between the East and the West with the potential to undermine the clash of civilizations thesis.

That's right. If the Nabucco pipeline becomes a reality, it will be the first time that gas from Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan will be burnt in the houses of Europeans. This is a historic development regarding engagement of the West with the East. We will see if it will lead to further development of ties between those parts of the world. There is a possibility that it will potentially serve to cut the long distance between the East and the West short.

When we examine it from Turkey's point of view, we can see that there is a possibility that Turkey's ties with its eastern neighbors will increase, already a part of Turkey's multidimensional foreign policy approach. Turkey already has strong cultural ties with the countries to its east, and with projects such as Nabucco, its economic ties are set to increase. And this whole engagement of the East and the West would disprove the thesis of the clash of civilizations.