The poll confirmed the finding of another recent survey that reported that approximately two out of every three people in Turkey believe Ergenekon exists.
The Ankara-based MetroPOLL Strategic and Social Research Center conducted a survey to find out about Turkish society's perceptions of the ongoing investigation into Ergenekon. Dozens of suspected Ergenekon members have been detained or arrested in the ongoing investigation into the organization. Suspects include retired and active army officers, businessmen and journalists.
The main question in the survey was whether the respondents believed in the existence of Ergenekon. According to the survey, 62.5 percent of those polled said they believed that the Ergenekon organization existed. Only 27.2 percent said there was no such criminal network and 10.3 percent were not sure. Those who believed in the existence of Ergenekon were generally supporters of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) and the pro-Kurdish Democratic Society Party (DTP). Supporters of the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP), however, generally said they didn't believe that Ergenekon existed.
According to a previous survey, conducted by the A&G polling company, the existence of Ergenekon was clear for 61.7 percent of the respondents, while 20.3 percent said they believed there was no such crime network and 18 percent were undecided.
Respondents were also asked about how they perceived the Ergenekon organization. Nearly 27 percent said it was an organization that had attempted to overthrow the government, while 24.9 percent said it was a clandestine organization and 12.4 percent said it was a terrorist organization. About 10 percent, however, said Ergenekon was a patriotic organization. More than 25 percent declined to comment.
Another important question directed at participants was about the links between the Ergenekon network and unresolved murders in Turkey. Around 55 percent of those polled said they believed there was a strong link between Ergenekon and unresolved murders in the country. Less than 30 percent replied that there was no such link.
A number of plans, maps and arms caches recently unearthed in the latest wave of searches and detentions carried out as part of the Ergenekon investigation suggest that the group was behind many provocative attacks and murders previously attributed to various other organizations.
A considerable portion of the respondents, 47.7 percent, said they don’t believe the Ergenekon investigation is an attempt by the government to intimidate the opposition. Thirty-eight percent, however, said the government was using the investigation as a tool to suppress the opposition.
CHP leader Deniz Baykal has long complained that the AK Party is using the Ergenekon investigation to take revenge on opposition groups and accused Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan of attempting to change the principles and values of the republic.
Respondents were also asked about their trust in the Turkish Armed Forces (TSK), several members of which have been detained and arrested for suspected links to Ergenekon. More than 25 percent said they had lost confidence in the TSK in the aftermath of the Ergenekon case. Forty-nine percent said there had been no change in their trust in the institution and 21 percent said the Ergenekon case had increased their confidence in the TSK.
More than 62 percent said they believed there were individuals or institutions attempting to influence the conduct of the Ergenekon investigation. Several political and judicial bodies have been criticized on various occasions for attempting to interfere with the work of the judiciary during the course of the investigation.
Another important question directed at participants of the survey was about the detention, interrogation and arrest of high-level bureaucrats and army members as part of the Ergenekon investigation. Around 60 percent replied that these were ordinary developments, while 36 percent said they were unusual.
The survey also touched upon a long-disputed aspect of the Ergenekon case. Critics, particularly within the CHP, have claimed that the AK Party government has turned the case into a political one to serve its own purposes. Asked whether the Ergenekon case was a political or judicial case, 34.1 percent said it was a judicial case. Around 43 percent said it was a political case and 13 percent said it was both.
Respondents were also asked about the stances taken by Turkish politicians regarding the ongoing investigation. More than 49 percent said they approved of the stance of Erdoğan, while 38.8 said they did not approve. Around 68 percent said they didn’t approve of the stance taken by Baykal and 48.6 percent said the same for Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) leader Devlet Bahçeli. As to the stance of the General Staff on the investigation, nearly 63 percent expressed their approval.
Throughout the course of the investigation, General Staff officers have on various occasions paid visits to Ergenekon suspects, which has been seen by many as a sign of indirect support for the organization.
Regarding the attitude of the Turkish media on the case, 54.2 percent said they did not approve, while 34.4 percent approved. Some press organs have been harshly criticized for attempting to play down the significance of the investigation. Among the TV stations that viewers choose to watch for news on Ergenekon-related developments are Kanal D, Star TV, TRT, Show TV, ATV and Samanyolu TV.
Asked whether they believe the testimony of Tuncay Güney, who is both a witness and a suspect in the Ergenekon investigation, 22.6 percent said they did while 56.9 percent replied in the negative. Güney has offered a large volume of information about the details of crimes allegedly perpetrated by Ergenekon.
The survey also asked about the launch of the country’s first 24-hour television channel broadcasting in the once-banned Kurdish language. While 48.5 percent regarded it as a positive step, 45 percent said it was an undesired development.
Respondents were also asked about their support for political parties. If parliamentary elections were to be held today, 38.9 percent of those polled said they would vote for the AK Party, a figure lower than the actual votes the ruling party received in the elections of July 22, 2007, in which it won around 47 percent of the vote. This figure, however, is likely to increase by at least 7 or 8 percent at the ballot box because of the votes of those who are currently undecided. According to the poll, the CHP would receive 15.9 percent of the votes and the MHP would garner 9 percent.
When asked what party they will vote for in the upcoming local elections slated for March 29, 34 percent replied in favor of the AK Party, 18.5 percent in favor of the CHP and 9.4 percent in favor of the MHP.
In response to a question about which existing political party leader they trusted most, 43.5 percent of respondents said they trusted Erdoğan the most, a figure higher than the one indicated by the other recent survey. Erdoğan was followed by the CHP’s Baykal with 11.8 percent and the MHP’s Bahçeli with 8.5 percent.
Optimism about Turkey’s future was not high amongst the survey’s respondents. Around 65 percent said Turkey was changing for the worse, while 27.5 percent said it was changing for the better.
The poll was conducted from Jan. 24 to 26 by telephone among a random national sampling of 1,348 adults residing in cities, towns and villages. The margin of error for the overall poll is 2.7 percentage points at a 95 percent confidence level.
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