Turkey, in contrast to its NATO allies, has refrained from a strong condemnation of Russia after it fought a brief war against Georgia and later recognized two Georgian breakaway regions, South Ossetia and Abkhazia, as independent states. Instead, Ankara has proposed a Caucasus Stability and Cooperation Platform, a scheme that calls for new methods of crisis management and conflict resolution. But involvement of Armenia is problematic in the mechanism, given that Turkey has no formal ties with Armenia and that Azerbaijan is still in a state of war with Yerevan due to its continued occupation of Nagorno-Karabakh. But there have been developments that suggest a thaw in Turkey-Armenia relations. It has emerged that Turkish and Armenian diplomats have been holding secret talks on normalization of ties, and Armenian President Serzh Sarksyan has invited his Turkish counterpart, Abdullah Gül, to watch a World Cup qualifying game between the national teams of the two countries on Sept. 6. Gül says he is still considering whether to accept the invitation.
Asked to comment on a possible visit by Gül to Yerevan, Mammadyarov declined to comment. "This is a decision that the president of Turkey will make," he told reporters upon his arrival in Ankara. He met his Turkish counterpart, Ali Babacan, President Gül and Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan later in the day.
Speaking after talks with Mammadyarov at a brief press conference, Babacan assured Azerbaijan that Turkey and Azerbaijan were "strategic partners" acting with an understanding that they share the same destiny in all areas, in an apparent reference to the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute.
But Mammadyarov, in turn, was less enthusiastic about supporting a US-backed pipeline to transfer natural gas from the Caspian region to Europe via Turkey. Asked about Russian readiness to buy Azeri natural gas, something that could deal a blow to the planned pipeline, Mammadyarov said Azerbaijan would consider profit while deciding on the offer. "We haven't given a response yet. Talks are continuing," he said before meeting with Babacan.
Azeri gas is set to become a major source of supply for the planned Nabucco pipeline, a cornerstone of Europe's policies to diversify away from heavy reliance on Russian gas. Pressed to say whether accepting the Russian offer would undermine Nabucco, Mammadyarov said, "This is a matter of trade and profitability."
Turkey closed its border with Armenia and severed formal ties after Armenia occupied Nagorno-Karabakh. Normalization of ties depends on Armenian withdrawal from the Azerbaijani territory, Yerevan's shelving of support for Armenian diaspora efforts to win international recognition for Armenian genocide claims and formal recognition by Armenia of the current border with Turkey.
Azerbaijan, Turkey's regional and ethnic ally, is likely to be offended by any rapprochement between Turkey and Armenia. But the recent crisis in the Caucasus may force a rethinking of regional balances. The Russian operation in Georgia raised questions about the security of regional transportation and energy transfer lines. With its Armenian border closed, Turkey relies on Georgia as an outlet to the Caucasus.
The proposed Caucasus platform will also require a restoration of some sort of dialogue between both Armenia and Turkey and Armenia and Azerbaijan. Turkish officials have said Armenia will definitely become a part of the proposed platform and that formalities of the dialogue with Yerevan will be decided after further talks with Armenian ally Russia, raising expectations that dialogue between Ankara and Yerevan could take place via Moscow's mediation.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov will arrive in Turkey early next week for talks on the proposed Caucasus platform. On Sunday, Georgian Foreign Minister Eka Tkeshelashvili will have talks in İstanbul on the situation in the region and on the potential Caucasus platform.
Azerbaijanis cool to Gül visit
In the streets of Azerbaijani capital Baku, public opinion is divided but mostly cool to a possible visit by Gül to Armenia to watch the World Cup qualifying game on Sept. 6.
"Gül should not go there because there will be provocation and chaos if he goes. No one will be welcoming if Gül agrees to visit," said Akif Rustemov, a teacher, to Cihan news agency. He softened his opposition when asked whether Gül and Sarksyan should discuss the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. "If this is the case, then he should go. In fact, our president, Ilham Aliyev, should also join. Foreign mediators have been trying to find a solution for 17 years, but nothing happens. We have to solve this ourselves."
"Gül should not go to Armenia because it is a hostile country," said Ahmed Halilov, a civil servant, to Cihan. "If it's an enemy of Azerbaijan then it's also an enemy of Turkey because we -- as our politicians say -- are one nation with two states."
Mahmud Necefov, however, disagreed, saying Gül should visit Armenia and discuss every issue of dispute. "Political issues should be taken up and the Nagorno-Karabakh issue should definitely be discussed," he said. "I think he should go and discuss everything."
In remarks published yesterday, Gül refused to give a hint on whether he is planning to go but sent warm messages to Armenia. "We want to solve our problems with all neighbors. This is our region and we are all children of this region. Turks and Armenians live side by side in these lands," Gül told Radikal daily.
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