The Social and Political Situation in Turkey survey, conducted by the Ankara-based MetroPOLL Strategic & Social Research Center on Aug. 4-5, surveyed 1,226 people across various provinces in Turkey to find out people’s views on a closure case against the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party), which concluded last month, and on an ongoing trial of suspected members of the terrorist organization Ergenekon, whose members are facing various charges over trying to topple the government. Ergenekon is suspected of a number of political murders, assassinations, attacks and other public incidents with the ultimate aim of creating disorder so as to trigger a military intervention against the government. The survey also sought to measure the pulse of the people on everyday politics and their opinions on the future course of the country.
In response to a question on whether they would vote for or against Turkey’s EU membership if there were a referendum today, 66.2 percent said they would vote ‘Yes,’ while only 28 percent said they would vote against. In June of 2007 38.3 percent of those polled were against EU membership while 55.5 percent supported it.
The poll supports the notion that the general tendency of the Turkish public is to increase support for EU membership in the face of processes perceived to be anti-democratic. The increase follows the failed attempt of a state prosecutor to close the ruling AK Party.
The Constitutional Court announced on July 30 that it would not close the AK Party, noting, however, that the party was guilty of anti-secular activities, but that the activities weren’t serious enough to warrant closure. The court ruled instead to impose financial sanctions on the party.
A state prosecutor in March had filed the case for closure of the AK Party, calling also for a ban on 71 of its high-level officials from belonging to a political party for five years.
In response to how they saw the ruling of the Constitutional Court, 27.6 percent of those polled said they were not pleased with the decision while 69.7 percent said they were happy with it. In response to a question on whether they thought the AK Party indeed threatens secularism in Turkey, 35 percent said yes while 60 percent said no. However, an overwhelming majority of 73.4 percent said the AK Party should change its policies in the future to avoid a similar situation, while only 22.6 percent said the party should stick to its past policies.
Some critics have claimed that the Ergenekon investigation is the government's response to the closure case, since all of those detained are staunch secularists known for their criticism of the AK Party. In response to a question on whether they saw a link between the closure case and the Ergenekon investigation, 54.6 percent of those polled said no while 36.3 percent said they believed there was a link.
Ergenekon is political
Of the respondents, 16.2 percent said they agreed with the statement "Ergenekon is a patriotic organization established to protect Turkey's regime," while 71.4 said they did not agree. However, 43.3 percent said they agreed with the statement that "Ergenekon is an organization aiming to stage a coup to forcibly overthrow the government," while 45.5 percent said they disagreed. In regards to the statement "Ergenekon is a terrorist organization," 48.7 percent said they did not agree while 40.5 percent agreed. Asked whether they agreed with the statement "Ergenekon is a crime organization aiming to acquire special interests," 55 percent agreed while 35.1 percent said they did not agree. A not insignificant 41.8 percent agreed that "There is no such thing as Ergenekon and the investigation is a politically motivated process," while 45.5 percent said they disagreed. The rate of those who had no opinion on this statement was 12.6 percent, higher than in the case of any of the rest of the statements about Ergenekon. In response to what they thought of the case without asking if they believed that Ergenekon really existed, 54 percent said they believed the case was political, while 32.9 percent said they saw it as a legal case. Here too, 12.8 percent said they had no opinion.
In response to the question "Are you satisfied with the Ergenekon indictment?" 59 percent said no, while 22 percent said yes. Eighteen percent said they had no idea. The 2,455 page indictment, made public last month, indicates that Ergenekon was behind a series of political assassinations over the past two decades. The group is also suspected of being behind the murder of Hrant Dink, a Turkish-Armenian journalist killed by a teenager in 2007. Eighty-six suspects, 47 of whom are currently under arrest, are accused of having suspicious links to the gang. Suspects will start appearing before the court on Oct. 20 and will face accusations that include "membership in an armed terrorist group," "attempting to bring down the government," "inciting people to rebel against the Republic of Turkey" and other similar crimes.
When asked their opinions about the possible outcome of the case, a majority were pessimistic, with 53 percent saying they agreed with the statement that the prosecutor's claims will not be investigated and no effective results will come out of the trial. However, 35.2 percent said they agreed that the case will be the end to illegal formations within the state and that it will enhance democracy in the end.
CHP support for Ergenekon suspects questioned
An overwhelming majority, 71.2 percent, said they thought the attitude of the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP), which has accused the prosecution of conducting the operation in retaliation for the closure case against the AK Party, was wrong. Only 19 percent of the respondents said they agreed with the CHP, while nearly 10 percent said they did not have an opinion.
Pessimism about Turkey's future
However, optimism about Turkey's future was not high. In response to the question "In which direction overall do you think Turkey is headed?" 37.2 percent said Turkey will change for the better, while 58.2 percent said for the worse. The figures, however, mark a slight improvement from those in June, when 28.6 percent had expressed hope that things in Turkey would get better in the future and 66 percent had said they believed things would get worse.
In response to a question on how the respondent would rate his or her sense of trust on a scale of 1 to 10 for various individuals and state agencies, the highest trust rating went to the military (8.7), followed by the police (7.7) , President Abdullah Gül (7.1), the judiciary (6.9), the Constitutional Court (6.7), Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan (6.4), Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) leader Devlet Bahçeli (4.0) and finally CHP leader Deniz Baykal (3.1).
Asked who they would vote for if there was an election today, 42 percent of respondents said they would vote for the AK Party, followed by the CHP (13.9 percent), the MHP (8.4 percent) and the DTP (1.8 percent). Of the remaining respondents, 12.5 percent said they were undecided, while 7.2 percent said they would simply vote a blank ballot; 3.8 percent said they wouldn't go to the ballot box at all, while 5.4 percent said they had no opinion.
The poll was conducted Aug. 4-5 by telephone among a random national sampling of 1,226 adults residing in cities, towns and villages. The margin of error for the full poll is 2.5 percentage points, at a 95 percent confidence level.
Benzer Haberler 
National
