The Irish are expected to come back on Oct. 15 with a set of ideas to overcome the stalemate caused by their rejection of the Lisbon Treaty in a referendum held last week.
The enlargement policy, one of the most successful tools of the EU's soft power, seems to be the first victim of the Irish "no" in the short run. The French and German leaders both agreed that without the Lisbon Treaty, to go ahead with further enlargement would be a very distant possibility. The influential leader of Luxembourg, Jean Claude Juncker, seemed to be in agreement with the two most powerful politicians of the EU today.
The anti-enlargement alliance of France and Germany, the strongest EU members, is an ominous sign for the membership-hopefuls as it would be unimaginable to push for the accession process to end in membership without the approval of Paris and Berlin. Unless the Lisbon Treaty is approved by the Irish soon, Croatia may be the first victim, as the dates 2009-2010 for a possible Croatian membership have already been mentioned by high-level European politicians. As for Turkey, it does not mean much as possible membership for Ankara is generally considered to be some time between 2014 and 2020. French President Nicolas Sarkozy made it clear that he meant Croatia as well when he said enlargement should stop.
What next?
The European Union will enter a phase of reflection until Oct. 15, the date on which the EU summit will convene again under the French presidency. This period of reflection will last for a remarkably short time compared to the one in the wake of French and Dutch rejections of the Lisbon Treaty's predecessor, the EU Constitution, back in 2005. In May 2005 the French rejected the constitution, only to be followed with an even bigger blow from the Dutch in the beginning of June. Faced with the "no" votes of two founding members, the EU declared a period of reflection, which lasted for almost two years. Then came the Lisbon Treaty -- less ambitious, less symbolic though keeping the gist of the constitutional text.
Until the Irish come up with a clear vision, the EU is asking the remaining eight countries to press ahead with the ratification process in a bid to confine the problem only to Ireland. However, the Czech Republic is looming as another big headache. EU-skeptic Czech President Vaclav Klaus declared the Lisbon Treaty "dead" after the Irish vote. The Czech Senate asked the constitutional court to look into whether the Lisbon Treaty is compatible with the constitution of the country. Bearing in mind the Czech problem, the EU summit conclusions noted: "The Czech Republic cannot complete their ratification process until the constitutional court delivers its positive opinion on the accordance of the Lisbon Treaty with the Czech constitutional order." With growing opposition from Euro-skeptics and key elections due in October, the future of the treaty in the Czech Republic looks uncertain.
What to do with enlargement?
While the German-French axis insisted on the suspension of enlargement, term president Slovenia together with the British and Finnish declared that enlargement should go ahead as planned.
Sarkozy, a strong opponent of possible Turkish membership, declared that further enlargements were not possible under the Nice treaty system. "Without the Treaty of Lisbon there won't be any enlargement; you can't say no to reforms and yes to enlargement." said the French leader. Not unsurprisingly he was quickly backed up by German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who has proposed privileged partnership rather than membership for Turkey. "I agree because the Nice treaty limited the union to a membership of 25 states, and for me it is unthinkable that we would change one area of the Nice treaty without looking at the whole of the Lisbon Treaty," she said in Brussels after the summit ended.
However, Sarkozy's blunt anti-enlargement statement was criticized by pro-enlargement member countries. The BBC reported that one diplomat described Sarkozy's comments as a threat -- and the wrong signal to send to the Irish people as well as those of Croatia and Turkey, who hope to join the 27-member bloc.
The Irish rejection is ironic as Ireland is one of the success stories of the EU. Before its membership in 1973, Ireland was considered one of the poorest countries in Europe. After its membership, Ireland broke many records in development with the help of EU funds and now is seen as one of the strongest economies of Europe despite a recent slowdown.
Countries that have approved (in parliament) the treaty so far: Austria, Bulgaria, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, UK
Rejected by referendum: Irish Republic
Awaiting approval: Belgium, Cyprus, the Netherlands (held up by referendum proposal), Italy (new government), Spain (new government), Sweden
Waiting for constitutional court: Czech Republic
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