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News Diplomacy

[NEWS ANALYSIS]
If PM returns empty handed from US, operation to be in Nov.

There has been increased speculation that if Iraq, the Iraqi Kurds and the US fail to meet Turkish demands over the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) terrorists, Ankara will be left with only one choice: staging an operation into northern Iraq some time in mid-November as the Turkish government has come under increased public pressure, said an Ankara-based Western military analyst.

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Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan will fly to Washington to meet with President George W. Bush on Nov. 5. Deputy Chief of General Staff Gen. Ergin Saygun will accompany Erdoğan during his Washington visit, along with Foreign Minister Ali Babacan and Defense Minister Vecdi Gönül.

Separately, US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice is scheduled to visit Ankara this Friday. In both meetings, the main topic will be the search for ways to avert an all-out Turkish invasion of northern Iraq to pursue the PKK terrorists.

Erdoğan said last Tuesday during an address to the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) that he would take a report to Washington showing alleged links between the Kurdish regional government in northern Iraq and PKK terrorists holed up there who launch cross-border attacks on Turkish soil.

He warned the US that failure to stop the PKK from operating out of northern Iraq will damage ties between the two NATO allies.

“I will openly tell him [Bush] that we expect concrete, immediate steps against the terrorists,” Erdoğan told AK Party deputies on Tuesday. “I will tell him that this test carries great importance for the region and in determining the fate of our future relations.”

However, despite Turkish threats that US inaction over the PKK will harm relations between the two NATO allies, there have been no positive signals coming from the US to stop the PKK’s logistics support in northern Iraq.

“The US has failed to respond positively to Turkish demands of addressing the PKK problem over the past several years. I am not sure whether Bush will now act upon increased Turkish demands over the PKK,” said the Western military analyst.

Turkey’s demands from both the Iraqi central authority and the US for the extradition of senior PKK leaders and the PKK laying down its arms while ending logistical support provided to the PKK in northern Iraq have so far not been met by either side.

The head of the Kurdistan regional government and the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) chairman urged Turkey to fight with the PKK inside Turkey instead of staging a cross-border operation inside northern Iraq during an interview on Oct. 30 in northern Iraq.

Mid-November may witness operation

Despite increased Turkish calls for ending the PKK threat coming from northern Iraq, Reuters reported yesterday, quoting US sources as saying that Rice’s hands are tied in meeting Turkish demands to render the PKK ineffective in northern Iraq.

Similarly, Western military analysts, speaking to Today’s Zaman, were suspicions over whether Bush will be able to satisfy Turkish demands vis-à-vis the PKK that would deter Turkey from an invasion of northern Iraq.

“If Erdoğan returns empty-handed from Washington and if the Iraqis do not take any steps against the PKK by then, I will expect a rather small-scale Turkish cross-border operation into northern Iraq instead of an all-out incursion. Those small-scale operations will continue for some time,” predicted the same analysts.

Meanwhile, Turkey has been continuing its operations against PKK hideouts inside the country, mainly in the Southeast.

However, earlier Turkish reports that Turkish F-16 fighter jets, armed Cobra attack helicopters and ground troops reportedly attacked PKK positions last week inside northern Iraq are described as baseless by the Western intelligence sources in Ankara.

01 November 2007, Thursday

LALE SARIIBRAHIMOĞLU  TODAY’S ZAMAN

   

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India-Turkey: Time to translate commonalities into closer bilateral ties
Police capture BDP attackers in Balıkesir
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Gül says MGSB not superior to Constitution, asks for revision
Report: Israel restricts tourism advertisements involving Turkish Cyprus

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