The US House of Representatives Committee on Foreign Affairs will vote on Resolution 106, which calls on the US president to ensure the "Armenian genocide" will be reflected in US foreign policy, on Wednesday. The measure is widely expected to clear the committee, which will pave the way for its introduction in the House floor. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi can, in theory, block the measure, but few expect she will do so, given her open support for the genocide allegations and pre-election pledges to work for congressional acknowledgement of the charges.
"We are not helpless if this resolution is passed," said Onur Öymen, senior lawmaker from the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) and former diplomat, in a phone interview with Today's Zaman yesterday. He noted that Turkey had responded to a US decision to impose a military embargo on Turkey following the Turkish intervention in Cyprus in 1974 by blocking US access to all bases in its territory.
What is at stake, say observers, is the US right to use an air base in southern Turkey, İncirlik. The base is critical, mostly for operations in Iraq, and its role may become even more critical in the coming months if US opts to use Turkish territory in a possible pullout of its troops from Iraq.
Experts note there are agreements signed by the Turkish and US governments to authorize US use of the base and warn closure of İncirlik could pose legal problems. But Öymen said that in practice the base is used for broader purposes that go beyond the framework stipulated in a 1980 agreement for defense cooperation between Turkey and the United States.
According to Öymen the US may lose a major route for logistics supplies for US troops in Iraq if Turkey decides to stop cooperating with Washington on Iraq, another possible measure to retaliate a congressional approval of the “genocide resolution.”
“70 percent of the [US] logistics materials are transferred through Turkey to Iraq,” said Öymen.
Counting on diplomacy
A closure of İncirlik and halting cooperation with the United States on Iraq could be two ways of hurting US interests in a critical region like the Middle East. And there are other steps that Turkish officials have refrained from publicly mentioning, such as Turkey’s ongoing support for operations of the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in Afghanistan, or further tightening of the restrictions on ties with Armenia. There are tens of thousands of Armenians working in Turkey without fulfilling the proper legal conditions, such as obtaining work or residence permits. And although there are no formal ties with Armenia, charter flights are in service between the two countries and Turkish goods find their way on to the Armenian market.
What is more, Turkish officials have been sending out warnings lately that not only US-Turkey ties but also the regional cooperation with Israel would suffer if the Armenian resolution is passed in the US Congress, after influential US Jewish group the Anti-Defamation League (ADL) changed its long-held position and decided to call the World War I events “genocide.”
Taking the risk seriously, eight former secretaries of state recently wrote a letter to Pelosi, urging her to block the resolution to protect US interests in Iraq and Afghanistan as well as prospects for Turkish-Armenian reconciliation. Retired Lt. Gen. Tony Scowcroft, chairman of the American-Turkish Council, added to the list concerns over the “many billions of dollars of annual trade with Turkey, both defense and civilian,” and many “American jobs” that would be at stake.
But what complicates the matter is that these measures, if implemented, have the potential to hurt Turkish interests, in some ways more than they hurt US interests. Aware of the danger, Turkish policy makers have intensified diplomacy to avert passage of the resolution ahead of Wednesday’s first vote.
Parliament Speaker Köksal Toptan sent a letter yesterday to Pelosi warning of the negative consequences of the measure’s passage and emphasizing that “it might take decades to heal negative effects of the bill if it passes.” If it happens, he said, “It will be difficult to control the dynamics triggered by Turkish public reaction.”
“What we are focused on now is ensuring this issue will not come to such a point as to affect US foreign policy,” said Yaşar Yakış, a lawmaker from the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party), in a phone interview with Today’s Zaman. “This is what serious states like us are expected to do. Threatening retaliation leads to escalation.”
As part of the intensifying diplomacy, a group of Turkish deputies, including the AK Party’s Egemen Bağış, CHP’s Şükrü Elekdağ and the Nationalist Movement Party’s (MHP) Gündüz Aktan, are heading to the United States this week for talks on Oct. 8-11 with Congress members about the resolution.
Self-punishment?
Retaliation through halting cooperation with the United States in strategic and economic areas is a double-edged sword that may equally harm Turkey. High tension in relations with the United States may prove to be an undesired situation for the Turkish government, which has worked carefully -- and successfully -- to achieve economic stability throughout the nearly five years that it has been in power.
Looking at the means of retaliation case by case, the blocking of US access to İncirlik and cutting of the supply line for US troops in Iraq would put the US forces in Iraq in a difficult situation, further complicating the security situation in the war-torn country. “Sudden deterioration in the situation of the US troops in Iraq, and thus in the overall security situation in Iraq, is not a favorable option for Turkey,” said foreign policy expert Cengiz Çandar, who is also a columnist for daily Referans.
Any damage to Israeli ties as a result of the US Congress passage of the Armenian resolution would deal a blow to Turkey’s aspirations to become a credible regional actor after all the success the government has achieved to that effect over the past five years, according to Hürriyet columnist Ferai Tınç.
“Turkey occupies a geographical position such that it is geopolitically significant for the United States in every issue that Washington is concerned with,” said Çandar, but added that “maintaining the good relations is as vital for Turkey as it is for the United States.”
Benzer Haberler 
Diplomacy
