Iraq, Kurds play hardball on expanding territory

Kurdish boldness also comes at a critical time for Turkey, which is dealing with threat from the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) raiding out of northern Iraq and has a presidential election coming up that could aggravate political tensions. The fallout already has shaken relations between the United States and Turkey, a longtime ally increasingly frustrated that the overstretched American military in Iraq cannot crack down on the PKK.

That has the United States in a bind, “unwilling to open a new front in northern Iraq. Nor can it afford to lose its support from Iraq’s Kurdish population,” said Dr. Andrew McGregor, a security analyst and Kurdish expert in Canada, writing on the Web site of the Jamestown Foundation, a conservative think tank.

At the center of the fight are Kurdish aspirations for the ancient city of Kirkuk, the center of Iraq’s northern oilfields. The Kurds want to incorporate Kirkuk into their self-governing region in northern Iraq. They won a major concession in March when they pressured the government of Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki into approving plans to move thousands of Arabs out of Kirkuk and resettle them elsewhere.

The program targets Arabs who moved to Kirkuk after July 14, 1968, when Saddam Hussein’s party took power. Saddam sent thousands of Arabs, many of them impoverished Shiite Muslims from the south, into Kirkuk to dilute the Kurdish presence there.

The Kurds’ aim is to reduce the Arab population of the city before Kirkuk residents vote later this year whether to join the Kurdish self-governing region.

Opponents hope to delay the referendum or cancel it altogether. They fear that gaining control of Kirkuk would lead the Kurds, who make up 15 percent to 20 percent of Iraq’s population, to set up an independent country entirely.

Nevertheless, the opponents within al-Maliki’s administration caved in after the Kurds threatened to resign from the Cabinet -- a move that would have spelled the end of the fragile, US-backed governing coalition. “For the Kurds, Kirkuk is nonnegotiable,” said Dr. Soner Çağaptay of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “Violence will only continue and spike toward the referendum.”

The Kurds used similar hardball tactics in February to win concessions granting them a major say in what companies are granted rights to exploit Iraqi oilfields in Kurdish-controlled areas. But the March decision on relocation was even bigger, sending shock waves into neighboring Turkey. After the Iraqi Cabinet’s decision to relocate Arabs from Kirkuk, Turkey warned publicly that its interests in the region cannot be ignored.

The hardline head of Turkey’s military, Gen. Yaşar Büyükanıt, went further, requesting permission last week to attack the PKK inside Iraq. Turkey’s government isn’t likely to approve, but the request alone has strained relations between Ankara and Washington.

The president of Iraq’s Kurdish self-governing region, Massoud Barzani, further angered Turkish leaders by warning that Kurds “will not let the Turks intervene in Kirkuk.” Some analysts believe Barzani pushed for the Arab relocation plan because he fears the US might block the referendum on Kirkuk’s status, both to ease ethnic tensions and placate Turkey.

“He’s trying to create a sense of inevitability that would make it impossible for the [U.S.] administration” to stand in the Kurds’ way on Kirkuk, said Mark Parris, a former US ambassador to Turkey.

Barzani also may have timed his move to exploit political uncertainty in Turkey, as the Islamic-leaning prime minister seeks to be president, raising fears of serious friction with the secular-minded Turkish military. Barzani also may be using the PKK as leverage in exchange for Turkey’s acceptance of a Kurdish-controlled Kirkuk. “The one card [Barzani] has to deal with the Turks is the PKK,” Parris said. “He could tell them, ‘Don’t forget, I’m the only guy who can solve your PKK problem.’”