October 3 on a Knife Edge

Of course, there are reasons: The “last minute” moves made by Greek Cyprus perturb Turkey; there are sour faces in Ankara. The Greek Cypriots, to a great extent, succeeded in making their views accepted after discussions that lasted seven weeks.

It is a real knife-edge situation: We can sit down at the negotiation table for full membership, but relations can also be irreversibly strained… Both are possible. If the counter declaration is transferred into the negotiating framework document without any changes, there will be a stern response from Turkey: We are parting ways with Europe. Turkey does not recognize Greek Cyprus or privileged partnership.

Turkey has not reneged on its policies. I know this quite well, the government is reflecting its real intentions. Turkish Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul, who is in New York, did not attend the reception that was hosted by his American counterpart, Condoleeza Rice, for EU and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) foreign ministers. This is the result of aloofness.

Turkey has fulfilled all the conditions laid down. The Justice and Development Party (AKP) government took steps that surprised everyone and implemented the adaptation laws with quality of reforms. This should be acknowledged. As a matter of fact, Europe did not expect such a performance from the AKP government. That is why the EU is now playing the game of hide and seek.

The December 17 pledge made by European leaders was obvious; signing the supplementary protocol, in other words, including Greek Cyprus in the Ankara Agreement was demanded, and Ankara fulfilled this. The signature does not include recognition, and so Turkey clearly stated its views under this framework.

After that point, there was no other homework for Turkey to do; it was waiting for Europe to fulfill its promise. However, instead of Europe doing this, it is trying to be evasive. The situation is as if the tiny Greek Cyprus Administration, with its small population and little influence, has taken the mighty European Union hostage; Greek Cyprus is mounting immense pressure to make its views accepted, and considers anything it can grab an advantage.

It is impossible to understand how Europe allows Greek Cyprus to influence the destiny of Europe in this manner. Of course, the decision Europe will make on Turkey will affect the future of the Union. Of course, Turkey relying on its history and geography has many other options. Of course, Turkey may continue its historic journey towards the sunset direction, taking Asia with it without joining the EU.

In a situation to the contrary, the EU will be dragged into even greater deadlock. If they leave Turkey outside Europe, settling internal scores will be inevitable. It will very difficult for the EU to deal with this situation, and this on its own, could lead to the dissolution of the EU. A commentary published in The Guardian newspaper yesterday described France and Germany as the “The two sick men of Europe.”

These two countries make up the backbone of the EU, hence, it will impossible for the EU, with an ailing spine, to survive for long. A negative decision against Turkey will trigger many developments detrimental to Europe. It is a knife-edge situation; any of the sides might fall on it. In any case, I am optimistic that this mighty Europe will lead not the Union into catastrophe by following tiny Greek Cyprus blindly.

The right steps taken by Turkey on its path towards EU membership will be taken into account and the historic decision will be made accordingly. It is also worth mentioning that October 3 is not an end but a new beginning; it is a start of a long journey on a narrow, slippery road with ups and downs… The negotiations will be on a knife edge. The period after October 3 will even be more difficult. There will be many obstacles Turkey will have to surmount, because the main problematic issues have been delayed until after the post-October 3 era.