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Iran will continue to be a controversial country in 2010. President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad’s authoritarianism, the growing political pressure and the government’s oppressive methods make the Iranian opposition more determined every passing day.
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It’s not easy to understand the opposition’s real dimensions, as the only source of information about the street protests is what we’ve got from cell phone cameras. The opposition’s list of grievances seems to be long whereas the global actors are focused mainly on the nuclear issue. The Iranian opposition claims that Iran is actually in the hands of corrupted leaders who undermine the freedom of speech and basic human rights. The protesters argue that the Islamic revolution’s initial principles must be re-established. That’s why Ayatollah Khomeini has become once again the people’s main reference. Let’s recall that Khomeini was against the use of weapons of mass destruction and the nuclear issue came on the Iranian leaders’ agenda only after his death. Even if opposition leader Mir-Hossein Mousavi’s views on nuclear energy are not very clear, the global players have already chosen to trust him. At the same time, Ahmedinejad is pursuing a rearmament policy, both in nuclear and conventional means, and hopes that his anti-Occidental attitude will reinforce his legitimacy in the country. By the way, he’s convinced that the opposition exists only because of plots by Western powers. According to him, Westerners are disturbed to see Iran becoming an important regional player; hence they provoke some Iranians in order to stir up trouble in the country. They need a weak Iran, a country they can manipulate according to their interests. This reasoning sounds very familiar to Turkish ears as our country has spent decades listening to similar theories: We’ve got problems because foreign enemies want to divide Turkey, so they collaborate with domestic enemies. This rhetoric was even approved by some foreign powers because it was suitable under the circumstances of the Cold War. However, following changes to the global system, these antagonist policies became senseless and hard to defend. As long as Iran insists on policies that are incompatible with the system’s new paradigms, the opposition in this country will grow stronger. It’s worth noting that the “Western” powers are not the only ones that criticize the Iranian government. Russia seems worried about this government’s methods of eradicating the opposition, too. Perhaps Russia has already realized that it is the Iranian government’s very attitude what makes Iran more open to “Western manipulations.” Regardless of their diverging reasons, what is important is that great powers are all adopting similar positions about the Iranian issue. Let’s look from a different angle for a moment: let’s imagine that the Ahmedinejad administration is right, that the domestic turmoil is concocted by Western powers, which don’t really care about the Iranian people’s well-being but only use them to put pressure on Tehran. Even if all these were true, the outcome would not be any different. If the major powers of the international system have agreed not to let Iran become a nuclear power, Tehran cannot resist with its current methods. Fighting against the “West” by oppressing Iranian citizens seems to be a war difficult to win in today’s world. Putting faith in aggressive methods in order to preserve Iran from the influence of foreign powers and protect the presidential seat from the opposition and blackmailing the world with nuclear technology can be very counterproductive and accelerate a process Iran’s leaders want to avoid. It’s not like we lack precedents.
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| 02 January 2010, Saturday |
| BERİL DEDEOĞLU |
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Comments on this article
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Orhan Ertugruloglu , Jan 02 2010 10:17, Saturday
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