Just before this attack, many other acts of terrorism took place in other provinces, so this latest one was, in a way, predictable. It may be difficult to find this attack’s exact perpetrators, but we can take a look at who will benefit from it. These kinds of actions reduce support for the Kurdish initiative and weaken the belief that this is a legitimate issue of democratization. They create a risk of a Kurdish-Turkish confrontation, making things complicated for the government, which proposed this initiative in the first place. So, at first glance, we may say this attack was aimed at harming the government.
On the other hand, if the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) is behind these attacks, this means the terrorist organization is also targeting the DTP. The debate about links between the DTP and the PKK, along with the one about the DTP’s presence in Parliament, grant the PKK the leading role in the Kurdish issue, reducing the chance of using political means to resolve it. Thus, those in Turkey who adore using “military methods” and those who have succeeded in establishing authoritarian and militaristic control over Turkey will get the opportunity to say they were right. In other words, those who defend democratization will lose, while those who benefit from the military tutelage regime will win, and that includes the PKK.
As for the foreign world, the US is the last country that needs a less democratic Turkey, one that may slip into instability. If Turkey becomes unstable and unpredictable, the US’s efforts to create a game involving Turkey concerning northern Iraq, Syria, Israel, Afghanistan and the Caucasus will be in vain. Especially at a time when Turkey is willing to cooperate with the US on this, the US cannot benefit in any manner from an intensified atmosphere of terror in Turkey.
Putting the Turkish government into a difficult position and provoking the possibility of domestic conflict can result in serious danger for Turkey’s neighbors, too. And many “good” developments regarding Cyprus and Syria may be torpedoed. Creating the impression of a regional crisis serves no one in our immediate neighborhood. An unstable Turkey will not be profitable for Russia either because it will be hard to implement strategic cooperation agreements signed between Ankara and Moscow if Turkey becomes a troublesome country in which authoritarian actors are increasing their political power. Even the energy issue can be affected by this. At a time when Turkey is fully cooperating with Russia over the latter’s “terrorists,” Moscow will definitely not want to harm Turkey or damage bilateral relations.
However, there will naturally be some actors who will benefit from these attacks. If this were not the case, the attacks would not have taken place. As an example, those who do not want to see Turkey within the EU may be pleased if Turkey’s democracy fails as a result of internal violence. Those in the EU who oppose Turkey’s eventual accession to the EU may unite their voices with Turkish Euro-skeptics and use these attacks to justify their stance. They may even have in mind an increased role for themselves in the wider region if Turkey loses its international influence due to turmoil at home.
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