Ocalan Verdict…

The file will now go to the Ministerial Committee of the European Council, and then will be taken to every political sphere. How the verdict reflects on Turkey will be determined here. It is expected that a retrial will be demanded. Turkey will try hard, both at the government and the opposition levels, to convince Europe that there is no need for a retrial.

I don't think that main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) leader Deniz Baykal's proposal of a side by side study with the Justice and Development Party (AKP) government will receive a positive response. It is also open to question how far European ministers, who sympathize with pro-Kurdish activities, will be convinced; nonetheless, this effort is necessary. Whatever the result …Baykal's call for joint action and a tour to convince is absolutely right.

This is not the first time Turkey is encountering a negative verdict from the ECHR. It has seen both positive and negative verdicts. Cases like the headscarf and the Welfare Party (RP), that were given paramount importance and all eyes were focused on them, had verdicts in line with what the state desired. I have doubts whether or not those who carried out intensive lobbying activities at the ECHR to make the headscarf and RP cases ruled in favor of Turkey, will show the same sensitivity in Ocalan's case. I have not seen the same activity in Ocalan's case as it was in the headscarf and RP cases.

The Abdullah Ocalan issue is important from many aspects. It also has aspects regarding domestic policy. His arrest and handing over to Turkey made the Democratic Left Party (DSP), led by Bulent Ecevit, the first party. A wave that occurred against terror carried the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), led by Devlet Bahceli, to a coalition partner status.

Not executing Ocalan even though he was sentenced to death, caused the erosion of MHP and made it remain below the national threshold in the first general election that was held at the time, despite the fact that this party voted against lifting the death penalty.

Where the file on Ocalan would be kept until a verdict by the ECHR was again a crisis issue in this process and leaders of the coalition parties could hardly come together in order to reach a consensus. Although it is said that the "Ocalan case should not be made a tool in domestic politics," it does not seem possible for developments on Ocalan not to affect domestic politics.

How it will affect domestic politics depends on how the next process develops although the ultimate result is more or less certain. The firegun is now on the AKP's lap. If it holds on to it too long, it will be very difficult saving itself from injury and from burning. The AKP is trying hard to overcome this with minimum damage.

Initiatives that the government might take regarding Ocalan are limited. No political party today has the luxury to say, "if we come to the power, we will execute Ocalan." They might say so, however, they will not be able to fulfill their promises. There is a policy, there are general lines which are drawn by the state. It is not possible to go out of it. If it were possible, MHP would have obtained a result during its tenure.

Announcements by military officials on Ocalan are interesting. They seem meaningless to me. Gen. Ilker Basbug, the deputy chief of General Staff in Turkey, repeated an already known view. He said:"We take sides, don't ask us." I don't know if there is anyone, who does not take sides regarding Ocalan, within the borders of the Republic of Turkey. Everyone takes sides as much as the military.

It seems very meaningful to me that circles, which had manipulated verdicts that came from Europe on the headscarf inorder to maintain order within, are now using big words on the Ocalan case.

Is there a chance for Turkey to say, "It does not interest me, it is none of my business," when faced with a ruling from the ministerial committee in the wake of the ECHR's verdict? Theoretically, yes, however, this practically would mean an end to the European adventure without any profit. Is it worth ending our European adventure and darkening our Western horizon because of Ocalan?

Even if the conditions drag Turkey into a retrial, the result is obvious.