Last Friday saw European Commission President José Manuel Barroso announced his new line up for the European Commission. Barroso has been pretty smart in the selection of his new team which has a good mix of old and new, male and female, north and south, east and west, protectionists and free traders. While the team is full of capable men and women, the fact that it lacks any real “stars” would appear to give the message that Barroso, now in his second term, aims to keep the lime light on himself and will remain very much the man in charge.The new boys and girls cannot simply take up their new roles immediately. First they must endure a grilling by members of the European Parliament through a series of hearings which will be conducted in January. This involves presenting their agenda for action followed by a round of questions which can be extremely tough. Previous hearings, for example in 2004, have seen MEPS reject candidates (the Italian nomination because of his policies towards women and homosexuals) or insist that dossiers are switched. But this time round, thanks to Barroso’s careful choices, no big dramas are expected. Only the Slovakian choice, Maros Sefcovic, who is due to take up the inter-institutional relations and administration dossier, may get a bit of a tougher time because of his lack of experience on constitutional affairs.
Turkey will have to get used to a new face. After five successful and action-packed years, Enlargement Commissioner Olli Rehn is moving on to a new job. He has been selected as the commissioner for economic and monetary union which will take him back to his economic roots. His replacement, Stefan Füle, is young and dynamic and has previously been the Czech Republic’s minister for European affairs as well as representing his country in NATO for over four years.
His dossier has been enlarged and it now not only encompasses the countries which are presently negotiating membership and those with a clear membership perspective, but also all the countries that are in the EU’s European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP). This is a very diverse group which numbers some 15 states including Morocco, Syria and Israel, as well as all six of the Eastern Partnership countries. Add to that the Western Balkans, Turkey and newcomer Iceland then the total is 23 countries. However, although the country desks for these “new” countries will come under him, much of the work (political and regional) will still be carried out under Ashton and, when it is up and running, the new External Action Service. It is going to take some time to see how all these new structures work together but it would seem that nevertheless, much of the day-to-day mundane work will fall under Füle.
Füle needs to make Turkey a priority and the new EU team should send out a strong and clear message of their support for Turkey both in relation to its EU process and regarding the increasingly important role Turkey is playing in its region. Baroness Ashton should make visiting Turkey a priority in her first 100 days in office. I would even suggest she combine it with a visit to Baku and Yerevan to demonstrate the importance the EU places on the current developments under way. She could also help nudge Turkey and Azerbaijan into overcoming the difficulties they continue to face in negotiations for new gas transit rates and fees which is holding up the development of the Nabucco natural gas project. In step with this, once Füle arrives in office he should also rapidly plan a visit to Ankara and acquaint himself with all the movers and shakers involved in the process.
He will also have to deal with the deadly Cyprus problem. And what a time to start -- he is going to find himself jettisoned headfirst into the most crucial period in the Cyprus peace talks ever. Turkey will probably get through the forthcoming EU December summit without new sanctions being imposed even though it has failed to extend the Additional Protocol (which it is legally obliged to do) to the Republic of Cyprus. Rather, EU leaders will wait to see the outcome of the on-going peace negotiations between the Greek and Turkish Cypriot leaders. The real crunch will come around March when the two leaders must have hammered out a deal. If no deal has been squared by then Talat will have to go into presidential elections that he is unlikely to win. Another opportunity may not arise for years, if ever. This would be a complete disaster for Turkey’s relations with the EU and Füle is going to find himself right in the thick of it. Indeed, Mr. Füle is in for an exciting ride over the next five years which may see Turkey and the EU make a massive breakthrough or, alternatively, really hit the rocks.
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