Karzai and Obama; Guantanamo; Thierry -- what about the new EU president?

First personal observation: Van Rompuy was not elected by EU citizens, and neither was Baroness Ashton -- the EU’s new foreign policy chief. Had the British government perhaps been sweet-talked by Brussels into giving in on not getting the post of president in exchange for managing a 6,000-strong new EU diplomatic service? Second observation: Do Europe’s voters care? How could they -- they hardly know anything about the two politicians!

Let us talk about the process and its players. The European Union of 27 member states agreed on its first-ever president, Herman Van Rompuy. After former British Prime Minister Tony Blair had been frontrunner for an extended period, halfway through the race other names appeared on a list of potentially “electable” candidates, at times totaling up to seven interested personalities. As we all know too well from observing politics, those who vehemently deny any inclination towards ever being chosen for higher office more often than not are the ones who lobby most effectively behind closed doors and ultimately get the job.

So who can uncork the champagne bottles? Except for in central Brussels probably few did. We must analyze Van Rompuy’s election as being the best possible result for those who want a more federal EU. But if my political instinct is not misleading me there lie many potentially “further integration hampering political landmines” ahead: Do Germans really want to abandon their national parliament’s powers? Are British voters happy with the EU? Are all new member states really convinced about an ever-closer union? What happens if France or Spain ask for opt-outs, not only Britain? Will all 27 foreign ministers happily oblige and do as required under a new EU foreign policy chief?

How could it come so far? Let me start by talking about a seemingly unrelated issue which, however, is a good indicator of what had happened some years ago. I must admit that when I was young and lived and worked in Brussels I bought an EU umbrella: the EU umbrella’s came in dark blue complete with the 12 yellow starts arranged as a circle; they looked trendy and were a “must-have” for EU trainees and visitors alike; they were expensive and above all a symbol that nation states were on the way out. Did we really ask for that? Well, what my generation really longed for was borderless travel, working and studying in all EU member states and a common peaceful European future. What we did not realize was that European federalists cleverly manipulated our seemingly endless enthusiasm for anything “less German” or “less French” by telling us that what we wanted is what they would give us and that Europe would one day in the future resemble a continent without borders for people, goods, services and capital. What had happened behind closed doors, however, was preparations for a European super-state, totally distanced from its people! Last night, these circles celebrated victory -- but I am one of those who says that this may be a very short-lived celebration.

Is the fact that the EU now has a full-time president positive from a Turkish perspective then? I am not certain, as perhaps decision-makers might have been misled by the images of internationalism Brussels so easily conveys and portrays to its visitors and partners alike. I would rather say it was clever make-believe that once the Lisbon treaty was ratified EU accession would happen overnight. Those who pushed for a speedy ratification of the Lisbon Treaty are often in the anti-Turkey camp, not its advocates. Lisbon will not change anything in this regard. Paris and Berlin may even say that implementing the new administrative structures Lisbon requires may take one or two years, during which no new member state can be accommodated, not even be negotiated with for a good number of years.