‘The final phase’

The statements follow similar, “indirect” calls by the prime minister to his top commander to obey the law and cooperate in the investigation on the controversial document, whose nature is clearly intended to engineer politics toward undemocratic territory by waging psychological warfare against the government.

It seems rather clear that there is a disagreement on the cooperation. Erdoğan sees the big picture, as revealed by a powerful core of commentators in the left, liberal and post-Islamist segments, and legal experts. For days, he has been strictly warned that a “retreat” from the position on the side of the civilian rule of law would lead him to the same fate as one of his predecessors, Süleyman Demirel. Examples from the past -- the ‘70s and ‘80s -- were given. He knows that other predecessors such as Tansu Çiller, Erdal İnönü and Mesut Yılmaz were cunningly transformed into puppets acting as prime ministers in their careers, forced to ignore severe violations of human rights, reforms and democratic progress.

Erdoğan seems aware, too, that a “political retreat” such as in the infamous Şemdinli incident (during which a civilian prosecutor investigating and charging high-ranking officers in a dubious bombing case was disbarred from all duty, even as a defense lawyer) will mean a defeat within his party, a loss of support in votes and possibly a division of the Justice and Development Party (AK Party).

From that perspective, the prime minister is determined to “go to the very end.” He made clear on Sunday that if or when he is faced with an undemocratic threat, he “will not take [his] hat [a reference to the behavior of Demirel] and go away.” He implied that he will do whatever it takes in the name of the will of the people.

In between the lines, a roadmap appears: The prime minister revealed that he had all possibilities researched, in the case of the dismissal of his top commander, if he refuses to cooperate. He hinted to journalists that he may even face a legal battle because a dismissed top commander can object to such a decision in an Administrative Court. Nevertheless, this means that the office of the prime minister is seriously considering harsh measures. This is unique, and if it reaches that stage it will be equal to a soft revolution.

It is rather strange that a prime minister in a country asks for days, almost begs, his top commander to hand over officers and soldiers for preparing and eventually destroying documents targeting, in detailed plans, the constitutional order. He does this publicly, in almost every platform. This means a sharp contrast is there, and he is not going to wait forever.

Meanwhile, the drama in the public eye reaches ridiculous proportions when the suspect officer, Col. Dursun Çiçek, remains on duty, refuses to appear before civilian prosecutors and asserts his innocence in interviews published by some newspapers.

It is a crisis. Officers are defying the law, amended by the government, and the military lawyers are apparently deliberately misinterpreting the law, defending the no-show of army members before civilian courts. This, in turn, portrays a powerful institution, insisting on staying on the murky side of the rule of law. The prime minister cannot live with that forever because time will work against him.

The top commander, Gen. İlker Başbuğ, is at a crossroads. He knows that the outcome of a final confrontation -- soft or hard -- depends entirely on his chosen behavior. It is clear he feels cornered. The widespread conviction among experts is that he “knew” about the existence of the document(s).

At the moment, he invests in delaying. It is highly possible the advice given to him by uniformed experts is that the application by the Republican People’s Party (CHP) on the amended law, severely restricting the jurisdiction of the military courts, may be “accelerated” by the Constitutional Court, which is expected to reverse it and send it back to Parliament. This will invalidate the law until a new vote. Meanwhile, the military prosecution will feel empowered to take over the entire case, possibly with Şemdinli in mind.