There also were historically unprecedented events last month such as a visit to Serbia and the Armenian opening. Even though these trips were quick and generally one-day working visits, their preparation certainly took a long time. What is worth noting is that synchronized developments around these visits were commented on by international experts as proof of Turkey’s determination to re-establish its influence in the historical Ottoman geography.Mr. Davutoğlu’s travel plans for November include many EU countries and the United States. As we are not able to talk about a new kind of relationship to be established with EU countries, we cannot say that he has another “opening” in mind toward these countries. As for the US, Ankara and Washington concluded several treaties just after Barack Obama’s inauguration. So there isn’t any new situation to be discussed there, either. However, we must expect international commentators to claim that Turkey has tried to put back on track the EU accession process through these visits.
Let’s imagine for a moment that Turkey’s objective is indeed to become very influential in the territories that belonged to the Ottoman Empire. To claim that, we also have to admit that any other actor doesn’t have some kind of influence in the same area or that there aren’t any other actors who are fighting with each other in different manners to get or to preserve their influence in these regions.
One may think: How would it hurt anyone if Turkey becomes a source of stability for this immense geography? However, it seems that Turkey’s openings are being watched with concern by some actors who don’t care about the stability it can generate and who don’t want Turkey to become too influential because they only want to understand whom Turkey will share this influence with and in what degree this can limit others’ room to maneuver.
Before anything, we must emphasize one fact: Turkey is probably establishing a new kind of relationship in the surrounding region, which happens to be the Ottoman Empire’s geography, but it is not doing it single handedly. It acts as the strategic partner of Russia and the US. These two great powers are a part of this very process, and there is a balance of interdependence and mutual understanding. As Turkey doesn’t intend to “integrate” into Russia or the US, it’s choosing to develop a strategic partnership with them. Consequently, it doesn’t try to establish a strategic partnership with the EU because it simply wants to fully integrate into the European family. But as this “family” keeps ostracizing its distant cousin, it perceives Ankara’s openings toward Turkey’s neighbors as this country’s effort to replace the family with a new family. In other words, as long as the EU keeps pushing Turkey away, it’s normal to expect Turkey to seek new channels for its economic and financial development and political stability. Besides, these openings would be needed anyway if Turkey were already an EU member.
The main reason for the astonishment emanating from Turkey’s recent foreign policy actions, which are, in fact, quite natural, is that this process is not conducted in coordination with the EU. But here is the point: If the EU refuses to contribute to or join Turkey’s openings, this will mean that it has decided not to include Turkey within the EU. So it’s not senseless for Mr. Davutoğlu to start his November schedule with a trip to Paris. He wanted to detect Europe’s decision.
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