Well, that’s not exactly true. Yet it’s not so far-fetched, either. We have been offered full membership in the European drug agency EMCDDA, which stands for the European Monitoring Centre for Drugs and Drug Addiction. All the formal procedures were completed by the EU side, including approval from the European Parliament, Council and Commission, all of which said yes to Turkey joining the bloc.Not surprisingly, the European drug agency includes Turkey in its annual surveys along with other member states and even publishes its annual reports in Turkish. Though the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) government signed the treaty formalizing relations on drugs, the Turkish Parliament delayed ratification of it over the summer. I expect Parliament will eventually give the go-ahead to the formal agreement between the EMCDDA and the Turkish government.
My point, however, is that if Turkey continues on the path of more strategic engagement with its eastern, southern and northern neighbors, becoming more diversified in its export portfolio and establishing closer cooperation with them, that may very well lead it to say no to EU membership when the invitation from the bloc comes, at whatever late stage it does. Turkey may be another Norway at that time, opting out of the responsibilities the membership would otherwise bring about out of fear that it would harm Turkey’s economic interests, which would have been shifted substantially to other regions by that time. The signs are there, pointing in that direction. The share of the EU in Turkey’s export portfolio has fallen below 50 percent and increasingly more foreign direct investment (FDI) is coming from the East, including the Gulf region.
More and more international corporations have chosen Turkey as a base for their operations directed not only at the vibrant and dynamic domestic market but also to exploit opportunities in countries closer to Turkey as well. The country is turning itself into a gateway to markets spanning from Central Asia to the Gulf and North Africa. We may eventually have to come up with our own “privileged membership” solution to regulate Turkey-EU relations.
I was in Brussels last week for the launch of the annual drug report issued by the EMCCDA and had a chance to speak with people involved in a year-long study and comprehensive analysis of drug policies and trends. The numbers clearly indicate that the EU needs Turkey more than Turkey needs the former in order to formulate a sensible drug policy for the bloc. EU officials concede Turkey has become the significant barrier for drugs flowing to EU member states.
Especially when it comes to heroin trafficking, Turkey plays a major role in stemming the flow of drugs to Europe. While Turkey reported a five-fold increase in the quantity of heroin seized between 2002 and 2007, the amount seized in the European Union declined overall during this period, albeit with an increase from 2006 to 2007. In Europe as a whole, an estimated 58,000 seizures resulted in the interception of 22 tons of heroin in 2007. Turkey again reported the greatest quantity seized, with 13.2 tons recovered in 2007. For herbal cannabis, the total quantity seized in 2007 amounted to 96 tons, with one quarter of that confiscated in Turkey (25.5 tons). The seizure of cannabis resin also increased in Turkey, to 6,302 kilograms.
The latest UN drug report also confirms the fact that Turkey is becoming a battleground for narcotics trafficking and plays an important role in preventing the flow of drugs. For example global seizures of acetic anhydride -- used to manufacture heroin -- increased to 56,300 liters in 2007, with almost half of it recovered in Russia (25,000 liters), followed by Turkey with 13,300 liters.
The International Narcotics Control Board (INCB), the independent and quasi-judicial control organ monitoring the implementation of the United Nations drug control conventions, estimates that “almost 80 per cent of the acetic anhydride required for illicit laboratories in Afghanistan is smuggled through countries in South-Eastern and Eastern Europe.” Most of these routes use Turkish territory to cross from Europe toward Afghanistan.
We can draw similar comparisons on a number of other issues important to both the EU and Turkey. From energy to illegal immigration, from security to political clout in conflict zones, I believe the EU with Turkey fully on board will be a more significant player and its policies will find more receptive audience especially in a number of Muslim countries.
Then maybe we can see the questions vanish from the minds of many Turks, who often shake their heads, asking, “If we were good enough to die for European values during the Cold War, when Turkey was a front-line state, are we not good enough to live with those same values today?”
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