Turkey’s grand sin: self-confidence

Turkey’s reaction to Israel by canceling its involvement in a military drill and a comprehensive visit by the prime minister to Iran during its aftermath seem to have attracted a great deal of attention and criticism. The circles stating that Turkey is pushing its limits now start to make their genuine views more visible.

Articles published in the Western media argue that Turkey has changed its alignments and has shifted its political priorities; they even argue that Turkey is betraying the Western world by flirting with Iran.

A unique analysis among these articles references Turkey’s rising self-confidence as if it were a sin or fault. A columnist for the Los Angeles Times who asserts that Turkey’s recent rapprochement with Iran is likely to cause problems also blames Europeans such as Nicolas Sarkozy who oppose Turkey’s membership in the EU. The columnist further accuses Turkey of becoming excessively self-confident. The columnist goes on stating that its economic clout and geopolitical importance has made Turkey an actor that desires to become a more important player in world affairs; the columnist notes that flirting with Iran is a method to show that Turkey is acting independently of global powers. This confidence will be more visible during the meeting between Barack Obama and Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Erdoğan is expected to act confidently; however, the LA Times columnist calls on Obama to teach Erdoğan a lesson during that meeting (Oct. 31, 2009).

There are many mistakes in the column; above all, Turkey is cooperating with the East, but not as a reaction to the West. Secondly, the recommendation to teach a lesson to Erdoğan might have been meaningful if George W. Bush were still in power. However, Obama is a politician who promotes dialogue with all reasonable actors. Thirdly, it is unfair to accuse Erdoğan of defending Iran’s alleged project to possess nuclear arsenals while Turkey repeatedly made it clear that it wants a nuclear-free Middle East.

Despite all of these mistakes, the assessment of self-confidence is correct; indeed, the primary reason for the positive change is the rising self-confidence of Turkey. Turkey is aware that there is a whole different world outside of the limitations imposed upon its foreign policy actions. It also realizes that it is strong enough to achieve its foreign policy goals.

Without this self-confidence, would Turkey call for the establishment of a commission of historians to investigate the Armenian allegations? Without this self-confidence, would Turkey initiate a series of openings to resolve its long-standing issues including the Kurdish issue and the Alevi problem? Without this self-confidence, would Syria lift the visa requirement? Without this self-confidence, would the Turkish foreign minister head to Arbil? Without this self-confidence, would Turkey attempt to make peace between Syria and Israel? Without this self-confidence, would Parliament reject the March 1 motion? Without this self-confidence, would the Turkish prime minister react to the Israeli president at Davos? Without this self-confidence, would the prime minister visit Iran?