After all the efforts of the last two years, it would be a huge disappointment if this process were to grind to a halt; therefore, it is clear that both Yerevan and Ankara are going to come under considerable pressure to ratify the protocols as soon as possible, even though both countries face considerable challenges in doing so. And while Turkey’s good intentions are welcomed by the international community, they are still viewed with apprehension in Azerbaijan even though Turkey’s elites continue to promise Baku they will not do anything to hurt their friendship.While an outsider can look at the bigger picture and see the potential short-, medium- and long-term benefits for the region, from an Azerbaijani perspective it must be understandably hard. Seeing the president of the country that occupies around 17 percent of your territory sitting and laughing with the president of the country you believe to be your best friend is tough for ordinary folks to comprehend. And at the same time, what sort of best friend tries to screw you over gas prices and transit rates? Whether Turkey will be able to hold on to the promises it has made to Baku (no border opening without something happening on Nagorno-Karabakh) remains to be seen as Turkey may find itself caught between saving its own credibility and Baku. And defining what is meant by progress is not easy either. We may believe it to mean liberation -- reaching an agreement for a phased withdrawal of Armenian forces from the occupied territories -- but in reality it could be something far less.
Moreover there seems to be little sympathy in the West for Azerbaijan’s position in all of this. Indeed many people believe that Turkey would be making a mistake if the normalization process stopped or was held in limbo because of Azerbaijani concerns. In the EU, for example, a common view is that the opening of the border may make it easier to bring about a quicker resolution of the Karabakh conflict -- not a view shared by Azerbaijan, which would see it as Armenia getting the candies and Baku being left with the empty bag.
The EU has always tried to play a very careful balancing game in its relationship with Azerbaijan and Armenia. Both are part of the EU’s European Neighborhood Policy (ENP) and the new Eastern Partnership (EaP), but there are ambiguities. While in Azerbaijan’s ENP Action Plan, when talking about Karabakh the EU refers to Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity; in Armenia’s it talks about the right of self-determination. The EU virtually never asks Yerevan to respect Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity, rather preferring not to take a position but to sit on the fence. Because of Azerbaijan’s “autocratic” image -- having questionable respect for democracy -- there seems to be little compassion for Baku even though the country is of increasing geo-strategic importance not least because of its hydrocarbon reserves. Azerbaijan is a crucial partner for the EU. Tapping into Caspian gas is seen as the best remedy to bring an end to Russian control over Europe’s energy market. However, while Armenia continues to occupy Karabakh and the surrounding territories, Yerevan is viewed as the weak party. Azerbaijan is seen to a larger degree as the strong uncompromising party, the party that opposes people-to-people contacts and refuses to allow the unrecognized government in Stepanakert to take part in the peace negotiations. There is also strong feeling that one of the key reasons there has been no movement on Nagorno-Karabakh is more to do with Baku’s apparent hard-line position than on Armenian intransigence. President İlham Aliyev’s talk of a new war does not help either. Is this fair? Definitely not, but unfortunately this is the perception.
Even speculation of Caspian energy resources to the West being put at risk has not really helped Azerbaijan gain more sympathy. Rather the EU seems assured that Baku will not want to shoot itself in the foot by tying itself solely to Russian and Iranian markets. Aliyev wants the solid and reliable EU market without having to give Moscow a cut. In his anger with Turkey, he has talked about other routes that would cut Ankara out, but these would be extremely tricky and expensive. Therefore, there is a strong belief that this current “hiccup” with Turkey will sort itself out one way or another, so we should keep our fingers crossed. But there can be no doubt a good start would be for Turkey to stop expecting Baku to give it bargain basement prices for top quality goods and make Azerbaijan a decent deal. This would at least be a strong gesture of friendship and honesty.
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