The religious beliefs of conservative Muslims, who constitute the majority in the country, have been repressed by strict measures of secularism, whereas the state has also followed a hostile style of relations with its neighbors. Despite limited efforts toward democratization, the "national security regime" instituted by the military has ignored all elements with the potential to make Turkey look weak. Turkey's approach to Armenia and Armenians has been shaped by this style, and the pursued policies have been disabled by this unfortunate distrust.However, those who have governed Turkey since 2002 have questioned this approach. They have also managed to devise a new path to follow despite all handicaps and obstacles posed by the status quo. The internal architect of this new approach, which is a revolutionary paradigmatic change in internal and external politics, is Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the prime minister, whereas Ahmet Davutoglu, the foreign minister, who had served as foreign policy adviser in the past, stands out as the external architect. The Erdogan government has introduced striking initiatives to resolve internal political tensions. During the same period, Turkey has also assumed the mission of making peace in the region. Turkey, which has developed good ties with Greece, Bulgaria, Syria, Iraq, Iran and Russia, despite a troubled past with these countries, and enhanced its relations even further with Syria and Iraq, has successfully pursued a policy of zero problems with its neighbours.
The recent developments in relations between Turkey and Armenia should be analysed in this context. Above all, Turkey realised that the current status quo in the Southern Caucasus is not favourable to Turkey, Azerbaijan or Armenia, nor to the international community. To this end, Turkish authorities held secret diplomatic meetings with Armenia via mediation by Switzerland. The efficiency of this kind of diplomacy was evidenced by the Georgian-Ossetian-Russian crisis, which showed that even a frozen crisis may re-erupt. For the Turkish foreign policy establishment, which is trying to turn its region into a haven of peace, its problems with Armenia pose the greatest challenge in the aftermath of the achievement of relative peace with other neighbours.
However, the achievement of good relations with other countries depended on the willingness of Turkey and the respective actor, whereas the normalisation of relations with Armenia required the involvement of other actors. Ankara was unable to ignore the Azerbaijani factor while closing the gap with Armenia, whereas Armenians were unable to stand against the will of the diaspora. Fortunately, the US, the European Union and Russia, the major powers in this equation, chose to play a constructive role in this process of rapprochement. Even though difficulties delayed the rapprochement process, the parties remained determined to achieve a lasting peace. Thanks to this determination, the foreign ministers of the two countries signed historic protocols on 10 October, in the presence of the Russian, American and Swiss foreign ministers as well as the EU security and foreign policy chief Javier Solana.
The protocols aiming to improve relations between Turkey and Armenia envisage steps that will lead to significant changes in the status quo in the Southern Caucasus. If these protocols are adopted by the respective parliaments, the two countries will recognise their shared border, resume diplomatic relations and open their border gates. Armenia will have the opportunity to access Europe through Turkey, whereas the latter will be able to maintain a safe route for the Nabucco pipeline and alternative routes that will reduce costs. For Azerbaijan, a probable resolution and consensus is on the horizon without reliance on coercive measures at the end of the talks held to address the Karabakh territory issue that will follow the Turkish-Armenian rapprochement. The victims of the status quo have entered a process whereby they will get rid of their shackles via the Turkish-Armenian rapprochement, leaving a final opportunity for the Armenian diaspora as well as the Turkish and Azerbaijani nationalists to strike. It should be noted that they will use this opportunity, but they will not succeed.
For the first time in the history of its foreign policy, Turkey is trying to address Armenian genocide allegations, which have been haunting it and creating obstacles to its foreign policy, via a realistic initiative. I am sure that the creation of a joint commission of historians, a precondition for Turkish-Armenian rapprochement, will lead to findings that will adequately address the historical prejudices held by both sides. Turkey is daring to face the tragedies of its past; fortunately, the current Armenian administration is brave enough to respond positively to Turkey's moves. Nationalist Armenian and Turkish circles, which are becoming more marginalised and violent because of this marginalisation, are the only actors left out of the process. You should not be surprised by their noise. This is their final attempt to strike.
This article first appeared in English daily The Guardian on Oct. 20.
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