How will the Kurdish initiative affect the AKP in the upcoming election?

The only exception is, depending on the Democratic Society Party's (DTP) attitude and policies concerning the PKK militants who turned themselves in, the Kurdish initiative could turn into a large-scale clash between Turkish and Kurdish societies as well. It seems the DTP wants to turn the process into a “peace festival” to gain political points from the process. It is certainly normal from the DTP's standpoint and in fact logical to develop policies to benefit from the process. Organizing large public gatherings and presenting the former PKK militants as Kurdish heroes creates counter-reactions from Turkish society, which could in the end turn into unwanted clashes between Turks and Kurds in metropolises.

Even the DTP's welcoming ceremony at the Habur border gate was enough to agitate and hurt the feelings of Turks. Following the return of the PKK militants, I spoke with Turks, mostly supporters of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) who support the Kurdish initiative. They were at best disappointed with the process because, in their view, the DTP had turned it into a “victory rally.” One AKP supporter told me: “When I heard the news that PKK militants were returning to Turkey, I tried to convince my friends, who were already disappointed, and said that the PKK militants must return to Turkey. What else do you expect them to do? However, after seeing the DTP turn this into a victory celebration, I became disappointed, too. I am very upset and hope they do not continue to organize such demonstrations in other cities as well.”

It seems the AKP government has failed to develop alternative policies to convince the Turkish public about the immediate outcome of the PKK's surrender. Despite the fact that the coordinating minister, Interior Minister Beşir Atalay, has called on DTP leaders to be careful about the process, it is normal to expect the DTP to turn this process into scoring political points. Moreover, the DTP is expectedly planning to organize a large demonstration in Diyarbakır to present returning PKK militants as Kurdish heroes.

The AKP should find a way to deal with Turkish unrest if the DTP continues to agitate Turkish feelings. One way to do so is to convince the DTP to stop this process. However, unless jailed PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan says so, it is very difficult to stop the DTP from doing that. An alternative way would be to convince media outlets to limit their coverage of images that may agitate the rest of society. However, it is very unlikely that the AKP government will be able to convince all media outlets to stop covering the Kurdish celebrations. Furthermore, the Internet alone provides enough room for these images to be circulated around the world.

A third way, and perhaps a better way, for the government to manage the Kurdish initiative without hurting Turkish feelings is to spread the return of PKK militants over multiple time periods and to wait for people to internalize and normalize the process first before taking further steps. The AKP government is lucky in that that winter conditions in the region in a few months' time will not allow the DTP to organize such large-scale demonstrations if the AKP manages to receive the remaining PKK militants in the winter.

The most difficult part of the Kurdish initiative for the AKP government will be when former PKK militants are nominated to serve as deputies in Parliament in the upcoming election. The DTP may naturally nominate PKK militants and present them as Kurdish heroes. The AKP in this situation will not be able to do anything to counter the DTP's move. This means a fresh confrontation between the AKP and the DTP in the east and deeper confrontation with the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) in the west. While political observers are starting to discuss an early election after solving the Kurdish problem, it would be wise for the AKP to delay the election by as much as possible to wait for people to observe the aftereffects of the Kurdish initiative.