Rapprochement and the men in the Kremlin

 There is a long road ahead. Each society has considered the other an enemy for a long time, and breaking that stereotype and building trust will not be easy. As a recent survey in Armenia demonstrates, 52 percent of those polled were opposed to the deals signed. However, when specifically asked about the border 48 percent said they wanted it opened, compared with only 41 percent who wanted it to remain closed. For Armenia to rid itself of the stranglehold of its diaspora it needs the border opened. Recent estimates carried out by a Turkish business organization cite that by 2011 trade between the two countries could be around $3 billion. How nice it would be for the younger generation to have “staying at home” as a real option as opposed to the present situation where a continuous stream of Armenians leave the country for better lives elsewhere. However, as long as Armenia does not make a move over Nagorno-Karabakh it is unlikely the border will be opened.

For its part Azerbaijan has, as was to be expected, been doing a lot of barking over developments, and in response, Turkey's political elites have gone into overdrive to reassure their friends in Baku of their support for Azerbaijan's territorial integrity, with Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu poetically calling Azerbaijani soil “as precious as Turkish soil.” However, while Baku may be barking and looking increasingly eastward these days, I still doubt very much that foxy President Ilham Aliyev would purposely isolate Azerbaijan by cutting Caspian energy routes to the West. The EU market is stable, abundant and reliable, and he wants a piece of it. Whether Turkey will ratify the protocols without some movement from Armenia on Karabakh remains to be seen. Given that the last meeting between President Aliyev and President Serzh Sarksyan in Moldova was pretty lackluster, it cannot be guaranteed. Let's expect that anyway both Turkey and Armenia will come under increased pressure to keep their word and ratify. Of course, Turkey may do it but just not open the border.

So at this point everybody should be looking at Moscow because the role of Russia in all this is key. This is Russia's turf -- even more so since the Georgia war -- and nothing is going to happen without the Kremlin. Moscow already has a secure relationship with Armenia (security, politically, economically), and increasingly good relations with Baku (it is no secret that Azerbaijani elites feel more at home sitting in the Kremlin speaking Russian and enjoying a good whisky than sipping tea in Ankara) and increasingly strong ties with Ankara. It is doubtful the Turkish-Armenian deal would have been possible without Russia's backing, and Moscow has its own objectives for pushing. Snuggling up even closer to Baku is one of them, the second is to further punish Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili -- the Armenian-Turkish rapprochement will result in further isolation of Georgia because it will remove Georgia's role as a transit country. A third is Russia's desire to carve a greater “security” role for itself in the region. Russia, being Armenia's lifeline, can push Armenia on Karabakh and insist that Yerevan begin to liberate the occupied territories of Azerbaijan. As an additional sweetener Russia may also offer Armenia an aid package of some sort for doing this. And let us also remember that liberation of the occupied territories is only the first step towards a resolution of the conflict. The heart and soul of the problem -- the eventual status of Nagorno-Karabakh -- is still very far from being decided. Let Azerbaijan get its other territories back; let's allow Azerbaijani refugees to return back to their homes, including in Karabakh. Let's improve security on the ground, and let's allow time for people-to-people contacts to be repaired and the roots of trust to begin to form. Only time will tell what Karabakh's eventual fate will be, but for a sweeter future, Armenia needs to take brave steps now.