Where is the world going with climate change?

 While some scientists still voice doubts, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), convening in 2007, concluded that there is admittedly a process of climate change in effect and that the world is warming. Another point which the IPCC stressed was that more than 90 percent of this warming is attributable to human activities, particularly via the emission of harmful gases and the destruction of vegetation. The sea level has continued to rise for the last 120 years due to the melting glaciers, caused by global warming. If it continues to rise at this rate, the sea level will have risen by one meter by 2100. Moreover, the sea level will continue to rise after 2100. The emission of greenhouse gases, which is, according to the IPCC's report, the biggest damage done by human beings, will continue to have adverse effects on the world for thousands years to come even if it is cut to zero today.

In 2007, the year when this report was issued, the ice-covered areas of the globe shrank by at least 2 million square kilometers, while this rate was equally dramatic in 2008. Scientists now agree that the main reason for this meeting is carbon emission, which increases the greenhouse effect -- to which we are indebted for life on earth as it ensures that the climate becomes suitable for human beings and other living creatures on earth. According to scientists, if it were not for the natural greenhouse effect, the average temperature on Earth would be -19 degrees Centigrade, i.e., 35 degrees Centigrade below the current value. However, the increase in the amount of greenhouse gases which are emitted into the atmosphere due to human activities has significantly boosted the greenhouse effect. Today, 85 percent of the greenhouse effect that triggers climate change, which is the main actor of big ecological disasters, is attributable to the use of fossil fuels such as oil and coal, while the remaining 15 percent is due to the improper use of forested areas. Total emission volume has increased by 2 percent annually since the 1800s, and starting in 2000 the annual rate of this increase has become about 3.4 percent depending on the increase in the use of fossil fuels.

 While scientists have still not arrived at an agreement about which level of climate change will be "dangerous" for the future of the world, it is generally accepted that temperatures above 2 degrees Centigrade more than the pre-Industrial Revolution era will pose a great danger to life on earth. They also have a name for this threshold: "the 2 degrees Centigrade guardrail." Yet, even a rise in temperature less than 2 degrees Centigrade will still have a great impact on the world. Some societies will be able to overcome these negative effects thanks to their adaptive skills, while some will fail, as seen in Maldives and Bangladesh. For every temperature increase above 2 degrees Centigrade, societies' skills in dealing with the resultant disasters or problems will decrease. Scarcity of water and food as well as huge health problems will arise.

 The bad thing is that the global warming attributable to the emission of greenhouse gases has already reached 0.7 degrees Centigrade on average. This is hitting many societies hard in the form of health problems in the general public, heat waves, floods, tornadoes and many other disasters caused by climate change. In addition to its direct effects, climate change also has many indirect effects such as negative quantitative or qualitative effects on water and food resources, ecologically paving the way for several diseases which we might never have heard of. Scientific studies conclude that a 2 degree Centigrade rise in temperature will lead to a decrease of between 5 and 20 percent in cereals production in southern Asia and Africa, which in turn will create wide-scale nutrition and health problems. The heat waves created by this change in temperature will double the number of people who die because of increased temperatures in cities. Even a 1 degree Centigrade rise in temperature in the Atlantic Ocean will double the number of Category 5 tornadoes, whose number and effect have increased by 300-400 percent during the last 10 years.

The climate change will felt most dramatically by human beings. Given our historical experiences, even the slightest change in climate has always urged many people to migrate to other places. Due to a climate change in Central Asia, Turks migrated to many places around the world. These migrations did not cause big problems in the past, since political borders were not as clearly defined as they are today, but any wave of such migrations has the potential of creating serious conflicts among states because of strict border policies.