The protocols, if adopted by the parliaments of both countries, will pave the way, among other things, to the opening of the border between Ankara and Yerevan, closed since 1993.
Open borders will greatly contribute to the economic development of both Turkey's eastern regions as well as to long-isolated Armenia. There is, however, a danger that the protocols may not be approved by the parliaments of both countries due to the pressure of the Armenian diaspora and Turkey's ultranationalists.
Such a danger does lurk on the horizon.
One of the protocols signed over the weekend envisages the establishment of a joint commission to study the allegations of an Armenian genocide said to have been committed in 1915 under Ottoman rule. Turkey denies the allegations. Armenia's acceptance of the commission to investigate the allegations of genocide has been an important step to ease decades-long Turkish concerns. However, it is also a fact that such a commission has already lost its seriousness as the majority of world historians have accepted the events of 1915 as a genocide of Armenians. But if Turkish-Armenian trade relations, in particular, improve considerably over the years once the protocols are adopted, allegations of genocide by Yerevan may not be an issue in the long term. This may be possible if diplomacy follows trade in the relations of the two countries.
It is also worth mentioning that behind the protocols lie significant world powers such as the US and Russia, a fact that strengthens the possibility of normalization of ties between the two countries. Russia has a strong influence not only in Armenia but also in the Caucasus in general. Russian troops are deployed along the Armenian border and if Turkey opens its border with Armenia and normalizes ties, Ankara needs to cooperate with Moscow in its dealings with Yerevan.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov's presence at the signing ceremony in Zurich on Oct. 11 is an important sign of Russian approval of the normalization of relations between the two nations. Russia is also an important actor in the resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute between Armenia and Azerbaijan that has long stalled the normalization of relations between Ankara and Yerevan.
As the world applauded both Turkey and Armenia, news that came the next day, on Sunday, that Turkey had called off an international military drill because of its opposition to Israel's participation, raised question marks over the Turkish government's zigzags drawn out of a fear of internal politics.
Turkey has long been Israel's strategic partner in the Muslim world. But relations have once again deteriorated due to strong condemnation made by Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayip Erdoğan over Israel's war last winter in the Gaza Strip in which hundreds of civilians were killed.
The last-minute Turkish cancellation of the sixth annual Anatolian Eagle air force exercise with the planned participation of Israel, the US and several other NATO members also highlighted policy differences between the government and the Turkish Armed Forces (TSK) on Israel. The Turkish military earlier announced that the exercise was planned for Oct. 10-23.
The decision to cancel the exercise is understood to have been made by Prime Minister Erdoğan himself, who walked out of a Davos summit early this year in reaction to Israel's Gaza assault.
This last minute cancellation is understood to have been made due to internal political considerations. The Islamic Felicity Party (SP) has as of late seen an increase in its power, though minimal at the moment, and presents a potential threat to the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) in the future as its grassroots are sympathetic to a party such as the SP.
Erdoğan, known for taking courageous steps in both domestic and external policies, may, however, draw zigzags due to internal political concerns. For example, he did not have to seek parliamentary approval for the protocols signed between Turkey and Armenia, but out of a fear of his party alone having to take responsibility for the protocols, he decided to take the matter to Parliament. If the Turkish Parliament turns down the protocols, Erdoğan will then tell the public that it was not his party alone but Parliament also that rejected the normalization of relations with Armenia.
But the government should bear in mind that if Turkey has increasingly been enjoying good relations with the Arab world, this is partly because of close Turkish-Israeli ties. Arabs, some of whom enjoy good relations with Israel, though behind closed doors, seek to balance their ties with Turkey out of a fear that they may lose Turkey to Israel.
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