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Last Friday, Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu was in Brussels updating European Union officials on Ankara's recent foreign policy maneuvers. As part of the visit, I organized a breakfast meeting with the minister where he delivered a speech on Turkey and the EU achieving synergy in foreign policy. More than 200 people turned up to hear Davutoğlu explain that the EU would be a more dynamic and serious player with Turkey on board.
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Davutoğlu is a good speaker and even though his speech was rather long, some 40 minutes, he managed to hold the attention of the audience with his considerable knowledge of the EU-Turkey neighborhood. His conclusions were not very surprising -- Turkey is an indispensable partner for the EU both in the EU and Turkey's shared neighborhood but also far beyond. These are regions where, with the exception of the Balkans, the EU is for one reason or another unable to carve out a strong role for itself. This is usually because the EU's 27-member states can never decide precisely what they should be doing and how they should be doing it. With each member state having its own national interests and priorities, it is often very tricky to find a consensus. While southern states are eager to increase relations with North Africa and the Mediterranean, countries closer to the east such as Sweden, Poland and the Baltic states are more enthusiastic to strengthen relations with their eastern friends and the Caucasus, the end result being that the EU has a limited impact everywhere. Turkey sees itself as a key player in both regions and Davutoğlu was keen to stress that if the EU really wanted to be a global foreign policy player -- as opposed to a dwarf -- it would need to get its hands on Turkey's unique diplomatic suitcase. Bringing Turkey into the EU-fold would truly synergize foreign policy efforts, which would be a win-win for all. Currently, Turkey is endeavoring to be everything to everyone, and there is hardly a corner of its neighborhood that has not been touched by the Justice and Development Party's (AKP) “zero problems with neighbors” magic wand. Progress is being made right across the board -- Syria, Iraq, Iran, Georgia, Greece, Russia and, of course, Armenia. Turkey has become a respected mediator all over the place offering its services at every given chance. It clearly believes that this dynamic policy will improve its chances of getting into the EU quicker. However, there still remains a rebel in the pack -- the Greek Cypriots. And this is important because Cyprus is one of the issues than could make or break Turkey's EU ambitions. Davutoğlu claimed that Turkey was doing everything possible to help bring about a solution to the long-running Cyprus dispute, citing Turkey's support for the 2004 failed UN Annan plan as well as the current round of negotiations between the two Cypriot leaders -- Mehmet Ali Talat and Dimitris Christofias. Presently, the talks seem to be going nowhere slowly, and for Turkey, the main culprit is Christofias. Ankara claims Christofias is purposely slowing the pace of talks in order to gain more concessions since Talat is up against the clock with presidential elections due to take pace in the north in April 2010. If there is no peace deal agreed to by then, his chances of being elected are remote. Whoever would replace him would almost certainly be from the nationalist camp and would not be interested in the type of solution presently being negotiated. At the same time, Davutoğlu believed that given all of Turkey's “efforts,” the eight negotiating chapters that were frozen in 2006 due to Turkey's failure to extend its EU Customs Union to the Republic of Cyprus should be unfrozen even though Turkey has still not complied. To me, he is deluding himself if he believes such a thing is even a remote possibility. Rather, Turkey should attempt to engage its Greek Cypriot friends through statements emphasizing that without a solution, regional stability and security will remain at risk. All parties should be working at maximum capacity to achieve a fair and comprehensive deal without delay. Furthermore, while Turkey's foreign policy initiatives are positive and welcomed by the EU, it seems to some extent that Ankara believes that this foreign policy magic can compensate for lack of progress in other areas. Turkey also needs to get its own house in order and continue to pursue the many political and economic reforms that are needed if Ankara is to arrive at its EU destination. Ankara should avoid spreading itself too thinly -- starting one project then leaving it half-cooked to work on something else. In particular, Ankara should follow through rapidly on its Kurdish initiative. Resolving all of Turkey's problems in the Southeast of the country is of key importance to the EU. Clearly sometimes it is easier to deal with foreign policy than domestic issues, but foreign policy alone will not get Ankara any closer to joining the EU club. There is only one route into the EU -- the reform route -- there are no shortcuts or alternatives.
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| 07 October 2009, Wednesday |
| AMANDA PAUL |
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