Yet the political will to establish an economic zone where goods and investment flow in may not be enough simply because economic realities may require more than political will to establish such a zone. Thus, I consider it is too early to jump to the conclusion that Turkey is leading a movement to establish an MEEU. There are a number of reasons why it is too early to predict whether an MEEU is possible.First, the nature of economic models in the Middle East does not allow for the establishment of such an economic zone because the majority of the economy in the Middle East is either controlled by the state or follows the rentier economic model. Economies in these countries are not tax-based; rather, they are based on income that comes from natural resources (i.e., oil and natural gas) which is controlled by the state. In these economies, it is hard to imagine how to establish regional economic integration as there is a very limited number of private companies running under the principles of a liberal economic mentality to partner with economic actors in Turkey.
Second, the nature of political structures in the Middle East itself could be an obstacle for such an economic union because such integration would only run best when there is political stability. Yet, political stability in the region is far from reality. For instance, we do not know what would happen to Syria if something were to happen to its president, Bashar al-Assad. In addition, we do not know what the future has in store for Iraq. The best economic infrastructure exists in the Kurdish region of Iraq; however, we do yet not know the Kurds' future either.
Third, foreign policy attitudes of influential states in the region (i.e., Egypt and Saudi Arabia) will be an obstacle for the idea of an economic union in the region because the very nature of their foreign policy attitudes is determined to lead the region. Turkey's political and economic activities in Syria and Iraq no doubt irritate Egypt and Saudi Arabia. Even the thought of such economic integration with Turkey means fundamentally transforming the economy, politics and society to reduce the leading roles of Egypt and Saudi Arabia in the region. In addition, such a transformation may even require a regime change in the long run -- something political establishments in the region do not want to see.
Against these arguments one can argue that the economic and political infrastructure of China to some degree resembles that of the region and that China has become integrated with the world economy without changing its model. Therefore, it is possible to establish such a model in the Middle East as well.
My response to this argument would be to look at how Chinese politicians engage with states that China has economic relations with. For instance, because of its economic relations with the US, China has softened up on its domestic political practices. It was unthinkable for the Chinese leadership to release Rabia Kadeer, the head of the World Uyghur Congress, to go to the US. Yet, because of US pressure on China, Kadeer was released from a Chinese prison after six years of imprisonment.
The Kadeer example itself shows how economic integration is transforming the political structure of a given country and Arab leaders are very aware of this. Such relations with regional powers would reduce the influence of Middle East leaders on their societies. It would trigger new movements to demand regime changes in the region.
If nothing else, these three reasons prevent me from being too optimistic and jumping to the conclusion that a MEEU is on the horizon. No, it takes time, energy and economic, political and social transformation to establish such an economic union. Nevertheless, I think it is a very good foreign policy preference for Turkey to make such a decision to establish better relations with Syria and Iraq. In the long run, it may even lead to better economic integration on the regional level. Of course, every form of economic integration would not only serve the interest of Turkey, it would bring economic and political stability to the region in the long run as well.
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