Abdullah Öcalan, the jailed leader of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), said a couple of weeks ago that Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has to take some steps in three or so months or “he may face being liquidated just like late President Turgut Özal did.” Experience tells us that there is something in these words to be taken seriously. Time is of the essence, indeed.
The loudly and widely announced “initiative” raised the expectations of the Kurds, both in the provinces in which they live and the urban domain they migrated to. People may hope and believe whatever they hope and believe, but once you “wake up” people's expectations, the crucial part of managing what you declare you will achieve becomes a vital issue of political existence.
The government is struggling already with the simplest of elements. One day it is the Kurdish initiative, the following day it is democratic initiative, then it turns into a “national unity project.”
It is understandable that navigating in the social waters and its sensitivities may be required, but once one chooses to address, too, the very social and ethnic segment whose status is to be reformed, it must be a very clearly defined path with which they will be presented.
It is therefore understandable that Kurds, still hopeful as they are, now start to mumble about their suspicions. Worse, still, their political actors, too, find a pretext to feed these doubts. The baby risks being born dead.
One of the easiest steps to be taken has been about establishing a Kurdology department, and the application by Mardin University was applauded as a fine step. But, in an apparent move of watering down the step, the Higher Education Board (YÖK) declined to have anything to do with the name Kurdish and turned it into a “living languages” department.
As long as allergy, fear and “latent denial” lead to such hesitations, the project -- and process -- is doomed to be hit by half measures.
It is commendable that the Justice and Development Party (AK Party) government seeks consensus with the rivals in opposition. It should be applauded that it is forcing the Republican People's Party (CHP) to start talking business. It should certainly continue to do so.
But the past experience -- of the last, turbulent five years or so -- should also have shown observers that, in reality, it is the AK Party itself that has to go it alone. No matter how willing the CHP becomes, it will remain an utterly unreliable partner -- because of the obviously volatile behavior of its leader -- and it will be up to Erdoğan to lead, with the risks that involves.
The AK Party has now given up on the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), which will conduct a fierce opposition under the flag of nationalism and with the help of threatening rhetoric. Still, people ask whether the CHP will be, at least, a partner in dialogue.
It may be. Cunningly, Erdoğan is now exerting pressure on the leadership of the CHP to discuss the Kurdish reform proposals that bear the stamp of the CHP, dating back to 1989-90. He says he is ready to absorb some of its elements into the current process because there are many things in common with what the AK Party intends to do.
The letter to Baykal, which Erdoğan mentioned before flying to New York, is to be written and sent to the CHP leader. Baykal, the master of swing, will most probably chew over the correspondence and will try to avoid contact by a dense rhetoric filled with new conditions and demands.
There may be nothing wrong with this waltz. It will serve in favor of the AK Party, but still not damage the CHP severely, since it aims at keeping its “conservative” pro-republican vote. The CHP may only be involved in the “silent support” of insignificant steps -- such as Kurdish translators in hospitals, etc., -- but will maintain its right to oppose major ones.
Erdoğan should also know that the apparently hesitant and fragile support from the top command is the best he can get. (This, too, should show how important the element of time is.) The focus, therefore, must be on what the AK Party knows and does. Sending the wrong messages will increase the damage to the expectant public. If the AK Party renews the motion of cross-border operations into Iraq, it will alienate the Iraqi actors as well as spreading confusion among the Kurds of Turkey.