Cyprus: The clock is ticking, again

After four years of the status quo, a new round of talks was initiated following the election of Dimitris Christofias in February 2008. With Mehmet Ali Talat heading the Turkish Cypriot community, it seemed there was a real chance of success given that both men were not only dedicated to resolving the problem but were also old friends. However, just over a year since face to face talks began there is fear that they are heading for failure, too. Although progress has been made on many areas let us remind ourselves that the Cyprus problem constitutes a mine field of sensitive and divisive issues and significant differences remain. Of the six “dossiers” all but two (security/guarantees and territory, which have been left to the end) have been discussed. Good progress has been made on the economy and EU affairs, while some difficulties remain on governance and power sharing. On the thorny issue of property there has been no progress. The two leaders have plenty of material to help them, including the 1977 and 1979 High Level Agreements, which first set out the framework for a bizonal, bi-communal federation as well as all the ideas, drafts and suggestions that have been used for other previous plans including the Annan Plan. The key is finding the courage and will to compromise and reach a consensus even though it may prove less than popular at the time. Neither side is going to get everything it wants and a lot of “trading” will need to be carried out to reach the end of the road.

Unfortunately once again time is not on Cyprus' side. Presidential elections are due to take place in the north in April 2010, and unless Talat can get a deal delivered by then it is unlikely he will be re-elected. In his place would come the hard-line opposition, which would have serious consequences for future negotiations. Indeed election campaigns have already kicked off and are having a negative effect on the process. To counter this and to try to build momentum Talat has proposed that instead of the once a week regular session the two leaders meet for 10 consecutive days at a time on difficult issues to try and break the deadlock and find a consensus. It is also evident that the Greek Cypriots may endeavor to use Talat's “time” issue to squeeze more from him. This is already demonstrated by attempts to deviate from previously agreed UN parameters on bizonality and political equality on certain issues.

The international community may push the two leaders, but outside forces need to play a careful balancing act as too much interference could result in a new plan being perceived as “cooked up” by external powers, much as the Annan Plan was by Greek Cypriots. Therefore, there should be no “desperate” attempts to push the leaders because it will only backfire.

Is this the last chance to find a solution? Well it is certainly the best chance for a long time, but it may not represent the last either. As long as Turkey's EU process continues to roll there will always be another opportunity. However, if Turkey's process is derailed -- for whatever reason -- that would almost certainly present the end of the road. What is clear is that not only Cypriots, but the whole region -- and indeed beyond -- stands to gain from a settlement, which is why all parties involved should not allow these talks to fail.