What is striking is that for the first time in years three big powers (Russia, Turkey and the US) seem to be working together to bring about change. Of course, each has its own reasons for doing this, but nevertheless, it is positive. While Turkey's ongoing rapprochement with Armenia has been widely applauded -- other than by Azerbaijan -- success is far from guaranteed. The next six weeks of “political consultations” with domestic actors are going to be tough for both sides given that Armenians and Turks have seen each other as “the enemy” for years. Opposition parties in both countries will work towards preventing parliamentary ratification by whatever means necessary. While Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's Justice and Development Party (AKP) has the luxury of a majority in Parliament, the Armenian leader does not. The Armenian Revolutionary Federation and the broader Armenian diaspora community will fight tooth and nail to put an end to the thaw in relations and the ratification of the two protocols -- not least because dialogue on the history dimension will reappraise Armenian views on genocide.
Azerbaijan's position in all of this is crucial, and, not surprisingly Baku is playing its cards close to its chest. Azerbaijan will probably play a wait-and-see game for the next six weeks. However, what is clear is that although Baku could live with the normalization of diplomatic relations, the opening of the border without some movement on Karabakh would be viewed by the population as a betrayal and something the leadership could not just ignore. When talking to Turkish officials they continue to “fudge” on the issue -- on the one hand stating they are ready to move ahead without preconditions, while at the same time continuing to reassure Baku that it will not do anything that will jeopardize their friendship. If Turkey were to go ahead, exactly what Baku would do is difficult to predict, but certainly gas projects from the Caspian could come under risk, although it would not really be in Baku's interests to cut back on their export options. Relations would never be the same again, so to avoid an Azerbaijani explosion Turkey needs a miracle concerning Karabakh, and it seems Ankara is working flat out for that miracle to happen as there are strong rumors that a breakthrough is imminent. This does not mean a decision concerning the “status” of Karabakh, which is still many years away, but rather the initialing of the so-called “basic principles,” which the two leaders have been discussing for some time and which are presently being revised for a meeting at the end of this month. The basic principles envisage as a first step the immediate withdrawal of Armenian forces from five of the seven occupied Azerbaijani provinces, the right of displaced persons to return home and the introduction of an international peacekeeping force. Therefore, it is not unlikely that an initial agreement on withdrawal could take place around the same time as developments leading towards the opening of the Armenian-Turkish border. What we can expect from now on is increased pressure on the two sides from Turkey, the US and -- most importantly -- Russia.
Constructive Russian action is vital because progress in this region is dependent on support from the men in the Kremlin, whether we like it or not. Russia seems to support Turkey's initiatives including pushing for a rapid settlement of Karabakh, which is something of a U-turn from its usual policy of maintaining the status quo. There is no doubt that Moscow can push Yerevan on Karabakh. So what will the men in the Kremlin get out of it -- Russia wants a stronger relationship with Azerbaijan -- in particular it wants more gas; it wants to further isolate Georgia as a means of getting rid of President Mikheil Saakashvili. By solving the Karabakh issue and having the Armenia-Turkey border opened, Moscow may be able to achieve this. Russia will also enjoy being seen as a conflict resolver as opposed to a conflict creator and will no doubt hope to increase security presence in the region by possibly having Russian peacekeepers included in the international mission in Karabakh. I am also sure that through economic ties with Turkey directly and via business, Armenia will continue to flourish.
However, there is a limited window of opportunity because one cannot forget if everything falls apart or if Ankara backs out (as it did back in April following pressure from Baku) pressure from the Armenian lobby will make it very difficult for President Barack Obama to resist genocide recognition further, which will be a disaster for Turkey's relations with the US and the region as a whole. Change will not be easy, but if enough political will and courage is maintained, the next six weeks or so could change the face of the Southern Caucasus forever. This window of opportunity should not be lost.
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