The first, which took place in June 2008, left the EU reeling when Ireland's population unexpectedly voted against it. Ireland was the only country to hold a referendum. No other country dared to do so, particularly in light of the French and Dutch no votes on the Lisbon Treaty's predecessor, the European Constitution. The treaty aims to streamline the EU's institutions, give them more power and make them more democratic and to foster greater unity on foreign policy with the addition of a European foreign minister and an EU president.So why would the Irish vote differently this time round? Well many things have happened in the last 12 months, not least the global economic turndown. Ireland has in particular been incredibly hard hit by the economic crisis, which shocked the nation. The country has gone from having a balanced budget at the end of 2007 to a deficit of more than 10 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). It has also seen its unemployment rate double.
Being part of the EU Club and thereby weathering the storm together has helped the Irish see the benefits of being part of the EU. This is particularly evident when you compare it to Iceland, which also went from being quite economically sound to almost being “for sale.” Indeed such was the impact of the crisis on Iceland that it led to its leadership reassessing its decision to remain outside the EU, and it has since submitted its application to join. In addition to this, the Irish government was able to negotiate a number of “legal guarantees” for itself, including on issues that are close to Irish hearts, such as taxation, military neutrality and ethical issues such as abortion. The means that the treaty content from an Irish perspective is different from the last time and helped pave the way for the government to justify a second referendum.
Furthermore, the Irish government upped its communications campaign by recruiting famous faces to promote a yes vote while at the same time launching a Web site to explain what the EU has done for Ireland (considering most people don't really have a clue) while the Ministry of Foreign Affairs has created a special site dealing with the Lisbon Treaty itself that outlines how Irish concerns have been met by the new guarantees.
Of course there is still a big no campaign, including from one group of farmers which have been claiming that a yes vote in the referendum would jeopardize farm succession rights, remove Ireland's World Trade Organization (WTO) veto, reduce Ireland's voting weight and lead to a massive influx of Turkish farmers into the EU. The European Commission actually intervened -- something it virtually never does -- to vigorously reject each of the group's claims, which it says are all factually incorrect
A positive result is crucial. This is particularly the case when it comes to enlargement as without the treaty it will be very difficult for the EU to enlarge further as the existing treaties and mechanisms currently put restrictions on how far the EU can go. Voting yes will also ensure that Ireland will remain a constructive partner for the EU rather than a burdensome problem state. Currently, opinion polls show that there is a strong swing toward a yes vote, with 54 percent of those polled saying they would vote yes and 28 percent against. A yes vote would also mean that EU-skeptic presidents in Poland and the Czech Republic would finally put their seal of approval on the documents, too. So far they have refused to do this until the Irish have had their say. But nothing can be guaranteed given that the pollsters predicted the same during the previous campaign and the final result was 54 percent against. One thing's for sure -- the whole of the EU establishment is holding its breath. Another no would be a catastrophe, and what would happen afterwards is a question that nobody wants to answer.
Benzer Haberler 
