No matter how you look at it, Cyprus' inclusion has had no positive results whatsoever. Cyprus can hardly claim to have given a big boost to the EU's economy or brought some special expertise to the club. Rather it has brought headaches.Cyprus has been divided for over 35 years. In the self-declared Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (KKTC), which is only recognized by Turkey, over 30,000 Turkish soldiers remain on the ground to apparently guarantee the security of the Turkish Cypriot community. Cyprus is a prime example of a country which has fallen victim to external interference.
The EU is a relative newcomer to the Cyprus saga. While the "Cyprus problem" was on the EU's agenda for many years before Cyprus joined the club in 2004, at least then it was not a direct problem, and the EU was able to act with a certain degree of neutrality on anything related to Cyprus. But on the day the Greek Cypriots joined, the EU became guilty of breaking one of its cardinal rules.
I don't blame the Greek Cypriots; they have played their cards well, as any country in their position would do. They have used their seat at the EU table to their best advantage and will continue to do so. Cyprus may be small, but it has the same amount of power as any big member state when it comes to foreign policy decisions.
For the EU's part, they continue to justify themselves by saying that they were convinced that the then-Cypriot president, Tassos Papadopoulos, was committed to a solution via the now infamous Annan plan, which would have seen a reunified island join the EU. These days the EU is sick to death of the Cyprus issue. It has not only become a major obstacle in the EU's relations with Turkey, but has also invaded other areas such as relations with NATO. The Greek Cypriots and Turkey take every opportunity to outdo and cause trouble for one another. Stuck in the middle of this is Cyprus' ever shrinking Turkish Cypriot population, which has by far been the biggest loser so far given that they have endured 35 years of isolation, big brother leadership from Ankara and exclusion from the EU even though they voted “yes” on the Annan plan. If there is no solution to the Cyprus problem, there can be no Turkish accession to the EU. Of course Turkey is big and powerful enough to survive this outcome, but a possible side effect could be that the Turkish Cypriots could find themselves being further if not totally absorbed into the Turkish state, whether they like it or not.
The only hope lies in the current round of peace negotiations that have been going on for almost one year between the leaders of the two communities -- Dimitris Christofias and Mehmet Ali Talat. Progress has been slow, and many in Turkey believe that Christofias is not really interested in a "fair" solution. Christofias knows that Talat is up against the wall. With presidential elections in northern Cyprus due to be held in spring 2010, Talat needs a deal to be secured by then, given that the chances of him being re-elected are slim. Talat came to office promising to deliver a fair peace deal as well as make good on the promises made by the EU in the aftermath of the Annan plan referendum -- financial aid and direct trade directives. Even though a considerable length of time has passed and financial aid was delivered, the direct trade directive remains blocked by the Greek Cypriots to this day. The EU made a promise it could never hope to deliver given that the Greek Cypriots view the directive as a step toward recognition of the KKTC.
For Turkey, the stakes are also high given that the deadline for extending their EU Customs Union to the Greek Cypriots is the end of this year. Without a solution, Turkey will not do this; rather, it will pull out all the stops to demonstrate they want a peace deal signed as soon as possible while at the same time continuing to accuse Christofias of stalling. They may also attempt to strike a deal which would see Turkey opening the Halki Seminary in return for a prolongation of the time it has to extend the Customs Union.
As for the EU, it will no doubt do its best to rally all the sides and continue to offer its support to the UN. The Swedish presidency has already been quite vocal on the issue. No doubt Foreign Minister Carl Bildt, already famous for the role he played in the Balkans, would like to go down in history as a hero in Cyprus, too. In reality, the EU cannot do much other than watch from the sidelines. I have no doubt that the road to a solution would have been easier had the EU not admitted Cyprus. It simply represents another negative twist in the Cyprus tragedy.
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