Slovenia and Croatia have been unable to agree on their common land and, more importantly, their sea border since the two countries declared independence from the former Yugoslavia in 1991. Since December 2008, Slovenia has blocked Croatia's membership talks until the issue is resolved. Given that there is no end in sight, it is becoming increasingly unlikely that Croatia will meet its goal of joining the EU in 2011. This will come as a blow not only to Croatia but also to other Western Balkan countries that view Croatia as something of a “model,” spearheading the region.Macedonia was the first Western Balkan country to sign a Stabilization and Association Agreement with the EU in 2001 and was granted candidate country status in 2005. However, membership talks have not even gotten off the starting block due to difficulties in meeting seven benchmarks laid out by the EU and also because of ongoing troubles with Greece over the “name” issue, which continues to block Macedonia's accession to NATO and is often referred to as a stumbling block in talks with the EU. After several years of negotiations, Greece and Macedonia cannot agree on a mutually acceptable name, with the EU continuing to refer to Macedonia as the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (FYROM). However, with free and fair elections taking place earlier this year and additional efforts being made to carry out judicial reforms and beat corruption, it is not totally impossible that negotiations may start within the year. Nevertheless, in the long run, if Macedonia does not back down on the name issue and give Athens what it wants, Skopje will never be allowed to join the EU.
And lastly there is Turkey, whose road to the EU has been plighted with troubles from day one. Just getting the talks opened was a mammoth struggle, with Austria threatening to veto unless the EU accepted the opening of Croatia's talks at the same time. With some member states determined to keep Turkey out by any means possible, the unresolved Cyprus problem, allowing the Greek Cypriots to sculpt Turkey's relations with the EU to their own liking, including having eight negotiating chapters frozen, and Turkey's own internal difficulties, it will be quite some time before Turkey makes it to the end of the EU path -- if ever.
Of course one could say that bilateral disputes should not be allowed to interfere in the relationships between the EU as a whole and the partner country -- but unfortunately they do and will continue to do so as long as unanimity is required on issues related to foreign policy. Headaches such as these will continue to blot the EU's enlargement dossier. Therefore it must be a nice change to have the prospect of dealing with a country which is relatively problem free -- Iceland. On July 16, Iceland's parliament voted 33-28 in favor of beginning the process of applying for membership. In the past, Iceland has never been that excited by the idea of joining the EU, having viewed itself as “self-sufficient.” However, the country has been hit extremely hard by the global economic crisis, which saw in particular its banking sector crumble to pieces, causing some rethinking on the topic.
Once Iceland has submitted its application (expected to be by the end of this month), the process is expected to be very quick. In fact it may be the quickest accession of any country into the EU in the history of the club, as in general the average length is around 10 years. Iceland will be a very easy bite for the EU to swallow as it already has a well-functioning economy, a strong democracy with deep-rooted respect for EU values such as the rule of law, human rights and freedoms and a tiny population of around 300,000. Therefore, there is no need to fear a massive inflow of immigrants. The fact that Iceland has already adopted some 80 percent of the EU's acquis communautaire also sweetens the process. Therefore, it is not unlikely that Iceland could well see itself joining the club by 2013 and even be the 28th member state.
However, not everything is perfect, with opponents to membership citing that Iceland would lose its sovereignty and its precious fish if the island were to join. Membership would eventually bind Iceland to tight rules and quotas on fishing and would also give fishermen from other parts of the EU access to Icelandic waters. Therefore, extremely tough negotiations would probably take place, which could slow the process down. Furthermore, the citizens of Iceland will make the final decision on joining the EU in a referendum. And that outcome cannot be guaranteed.
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