“The first cut is the deepest,” said Cat Stevens about love, but when it comes to the elections, this one is going to be the deepest cut in the political tradition of Kurdistan. This election is a crossroads in the history of Kurdistan in the sense that it will launch the process of this tribal society to turn into a nation-state.This northern extreme of Iraq also has had elections and political ups and downs in the past. The establishment of the Kurdish Parliament in the early '90s was certainly a huge step towards becoming a democracy, and even after next weekend's election there will be a long way to go. But becoming democratic and turning into a nation-state are two different processes, though they may tread together.
Kurdish politics had always been characterized by patriarchal allegiances, tribal loyalties and nepotism. The Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) founded in 1949 by Mullah Mustafa Barzani, father of current party leader and regional President Massoud Barzani, was in fact a name for a tribal coalition. Thirty years later, the current president of Iraq, Jalal Talabani, took the first step towards a mass party by bringing together people from different tribal backgrounds but with a similar world view. Tribal political structures are usually more stable than ideological or interest-based ones. While Barzani's party has stayed intact all throughout its history, Talabani's Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) gave birth to several political organizations.
In the last elections that took place in 2005 there were only 13 parties running for the 111-member Parliament. Next week 24 different lists are going to run. In 2005 the Kurdistan List formed by a KDP and PUK coalition won 105 out of 111 seats. In this one, it is expected that the new split from the PUK, the Change List of Nawshirwan Mustafa is going to win at least 20 seats. This time, more seats have been allocated to the Turkmen, Armenian, Chaldean, Assyrian and Syriac communities. It is expected that two Islamist Lists will win seats in Parliament.
These expectations mean a lot by means of the creation of a nation-state. With a much more plural and heterogeneous Parliament, the Kurdistan Regional Government will certainly be more apt to work on the new constitution of the federal state. The current Parliament had prepared a constitution and was planning to add an extra ballot box to the presidential and parliamentary elections so as to hold a referendum for the constitution. The Change List has managed to delay the referendum even before it is elected to Parliament.
The polyphony in Kurdistan is healthy not only for the future of a stable Kurdish democracy, but also for Turkey's relations with the regional government. Turkey's relations with the Barzani and Talabani clans have always had their ups and downs according to the mood of these regional leaders. Talabani was the first to start showing the responsibility of a statesman after being elected to the presidency of Iraq. “The office makes the man,” say the Americans. The pluralist nature of the future Kurdistan Parliament will certainly educate existing and future leaders of our most important southern neighbor as responsible leaders also.
This is not to say that tribes and tribal traditions will be wiped out of politics and daily life in Kurdistan. Tribal bonds are essential constituents of most Middle Eastern countries, and they substitute for the Western construct we call a “social contract.” The late father of Moqtada al-Sadr was one of the first religious leaders to realize that without giving due respect to the tribal laws in Iraq, Islamic or modern law wouldn't be applicable. Despite the indispensability of tribal bonds, a nation-state cannot be based on them. Tribal loyalties do not let a national will emerge from elections or political processes. Tribal loyalties do not provide for the emergence of a truly civil society. Opposition is truly constructive and stable only when it is respected as legitimate.
Massoud Barzani will probably win next week's presidential elections, and the Kurdistan List will certainly hold a majority in Parliament, but with the addition of the Change List, more minority seats and one or two religious-conservative members of Parliament, Kurdistan politics will be more colorful and promising.