There is no alternative to EU membership

This was clearly expressed at a dinner I recently attended where a German MP spoke about Turkish accession. While admitting the importance of Turkey to the EU, at the same time he was adamant that Turkey should never be allowed to join, citing many reasons -- too big, too populous (with current birth trends, Turkey would in around 10 years time be the largest member state, giving it considerable power in the various EU institutions), too many regional disparities, too poor, not democratic enough, not culturally compatible and too many “exotic neighbors” which would put the security of the EU at risk. I always find it strange when the argument is put forward that EU citizens don't want Turkey because it borders Iran, Iraq, Syria, et cetera, as if this is really going to change something in their own day-to-day lives. In fact it should be the opposite, as it would mean that the somewhat porous borders that currently exist would be far more secure and better controlled, given that they would have to meet the EU's very high standards. Rather, it would be Turkey's eastern neighbors that would eventually have reason to complain, given that at some point Turkey would become part of the Schengen zone, meaning that the citizens of those countries that presently do not need a visa to enter Turkey -- or if they do, they can usually just buy one relatively cheaply at the port of entry -- would have much greater difficulties, not to mention that Turkey would of course lose an absolute fortune in visa fees.

The German MP also believed that Turkey's arrogant approach toward the EU process was very off-putting. Although I am sure it does not mean to, Turkey frequently gives the impression that the EU should be grateful that Turkey wants to join it. He also believed that with the EU's ongoing unambiguous approach toward Turkey, Ankara would eventually “crack” and conclude the road was just too hard and not worth all the effort, particularly if there is no guarantee of even being allowed to accede at the end of it, given that some member states may hold referenda. Therefore, Turkey may itself start to think about different formulas for its relationship with the EU. I am not convinced this will happen because quite simply there is no alternative policy to enlargement. The EU has yet to come up with something that has the power to transform countries without the golden carrot of full membership. There is no precedent for it. The EU has been attempting to come up with something like this for years, including the recent European Neighborhood Policy and Eastern Partnership, but so far nothing has come anywhere close and I doubt it ever will unless the EU moves toward becoming a multilayered, multi-speed organization. In addition, although Turkey likes to moan and groan about the EU, there can be no doubt it has played a key role in the transformation process under way. Furthermore, being a candidate country for full membership still gives Turkey kudos on the world stage and helps it to attract foreign investment. Therefore, it is highly unlikely that any politician in Turkey would ever take the Turkish train off the EU track. It would be political suicide.

Many of the arguments made against Turkey are built on the Turkey that exists today (or in some cases built on a 1990s Turkey) and not on how Turkey will look after another 10 or 15 years of transformation and modernization. After a big pause, I believe Turkey is now starting to show real signs of re-engaging in the EU process. Turkey needs to focus on this and not on the messages that come from the two-and-a-half countries (France, Austria and half of Germany) that frequently talk of alternative relationships but at the same time will not put an end to negotiations -- these are the countries that want to have their cake and eat it too. So far all countries that have begun membership negotiations with the EU have ended up in the club. No country has ever failed. Turkey's train is on the EU's track and it will be almost impossible for the EU to derail it.