A remote but uplifting scenario for Sweden

It is hard to presume that Sweden does not think, “headache,” about the issue of Turkey as it prepares to take over EU presidency on July 1.

It will happen the day after the Turkish Parliament will go on its traditional summer recess, June 30. What the Parliament achieves until that day, in the context of reforms, will certainly either ease or intensify the headache.

Davutoğlu, I am told, puts the blame on the usual elements when elaborating on Ankara's fatigue over EU accession: political changes in the EU -- particularly in France and Germany in the past few years, domestic turbulence in Turkey between 2006 and 2008, the closure case against the Justice and Development Party (AK Party) and the urge to shift from the “concept of freedom” to the “concept of security” due to violence in the predominantly Kurdish southeastern region.

Yet, he was rather lucid in stressing the “ticking clock” factor: Parliament must work hard to produce concrete results. Important and comprehensive draft laws, such as the Commercial Code and the Trade Unions' Law, are at the chamber.

The foreign minister was also in the blaming mood for “unfulfilled promises” about Cyprus, but wished for a comprehensive solution with a deadline by the end of the year.

Blame is actually to be distributed rather equally to both Turkey and the EU, regarding the fatigue. But, as Davutoğlu has been known as a “realist with big dreams,” it is much easier to get on with dealing with Turkey's reality than Europe's. The latter might get even more complicated, making blame useless, even counterproductive.

Sweden might expect a bumpy ride on the Turkish aspect of its presidency, as it has already felt the first jolt in the cancellation of Sarkozy's planned visit to Stockholm. The French president's patience was put into a cranky mood after being tested by Carl Bildt, Sweden's foreign minister, who unexpectedly expressed his views in favor of Turkish membership.

So, one may take the analysis by the anonymous Swedish diplomat in Today's Zaman yesterday: “Turkey must help Sweden to help Turkey” must be taken as a cry for help rather than a gentle suggestion.

But, the bright side of life might not be that remote to be considered.

Two or three important laws might be passed in Parliament by the end of June. The Commercial Code has to do with technicalities of economy, mostly, and there seems to be no elements of dispute with the opposition. Given the political will and directives, an agreement with the opposition in order not to extend the debate on the huge text ad infinitum, the law may serve as an argument in favor of Ankara. If it is coupled with the success of passing the Trade Unions' Law, the number of negotiation chapters may increase and a positive turn for Turkey's supporters might be noted immediately.

But, Cyprus remains.

And we may be surprised by the outcome even there.

Despite the domination of skeptics over the talks, the two leaders on the island are very close to the completion of the first “grand” round of talks. They have been meeting tête-à-tête before going on with the groups in each session, and, in what appears to be an unprecedented pattern, they have been co-signing on their points of agreement and having it witnessed by the UN.

Although the differences on areas such as property, security and guarantees and territory are rather big, there are those who expect an unusual, positive end result toward the end of the year.

Yes, there is reason for concern. Plans B or C must be ready at hand. But, one important aspect is never to be forgotten: Both leaders know this is the final attempt, and their political future is strictly tied to success. By the end of the year, if there remains an impasse, they will be the first ones who will have to pay dearly. This is despite the visible slow pace and weary public opinion, especially on the Greek Cypriot side.