Why does the EU matter for Turkey?

The European Council decided, with the participation of France and Germany, in 1999 to declare Turkey a candidate for membership “destined to join the union on the same criteria as the other candidate states,” and in 2005 to start accession negotiations with Turkey. Ankara is, therefore, clearly justified in accusing Mr. Sarkozy and Mrs. Merkel of turning their backs on commitments made to Turkey. It can also be said that Mrs. Merkel's stance is in violation of her party's coalition agreement with the Social Democrats, who support Turkish accession. There may be some truth in Ankara's argument that the French and German leaders' recent declarations have to do with the coming elections in Europe and Germany. The argument that Sarkozy and Merkel “lack vision” for the future of the EU is, however, not at all convincing.

The United Nations estimates that Turkey's population will number more than 100 million by 2050, while the populations of both Germany and France will considerably diminish from their present size. Germany, at present the most populous EU country, will shrink from 82.2 million to 70.8 million by 2060 according to Eurostat. The population of the United Kingdom, predicted to become the most populous EU member state by 2060, will not exceed 76.7 million. It is, therefore, clear that both France and Germany may be worried that if Turkey joins, it will acquire greater influence in the European Council than either of them. They may also be worried that Turkey's current per capita income being only about one-third of the EU average, its accession may place huge strains on the EU budget (See Tony Barber, Financial Times, May 13). In short, Turkish membership in the EU may not be in line with the Sarkozy and Merkel vision of Europe.

Contrary to what Sarkozy sometimes claims, most EU governments, with Britain, Sweden, Spain and Italy in the lead, support Turkish accession. It is, however, true that Sarkozy and Merkel are not alone in opposing Turkish accession. The governments of mainly Austria, Holland and Denmark, and the populations of most member states are also against. Although it is not possible to predict how the European scene will look when Turkey successfully concludes accession negotiations and is ready to join, there is no doubt that the accession of Turkey to the EU is a truly “open-ended” process.

Those in Europe who share the views of Mr. Sarkozy and Mrs. Merkel need to consider the following: The accession process that started in 1999 has encouraged Turkey to achieve reforms towards consolidating its democracy and modernizing its economy that have been dubbed nothing less than a “Silent Revolution.” The loss of credibility of the EU, due primarily to the Sarkozy & Merkel stance against Turkish accession and the obstacles created by Greek Cyprus to the negotiation process has, on the other hand, not only reduced popular support for EU membership in Turkey, from 71 percent in 2004 to 42 percent last year (according to Eurobarometer) and slowed down the reforms, but also created a political environment in which the opponents of Turkey's continued Europeanization have conspired to topple the legitimately elected government, and came close to banning the party that initiated the reforms.

The accession process, despite all that, continues to provide for Turkey a road map for reforming itself, and should not be thwarted by offers of “privileged partnership” and the like. Any small member state, after all, can stop Turkey's accession even if negotiations are completed successfully. It must, however, be in the interests of Europe to have a stable, democratic and increasingly prosperous Turkey whether inside or outside the EU. This is also why the EU matters for Turkey.