Political geography in Turkey -- the sunshine belt versus the heartland (1)

Today I wish to take a different kind of electoral stock -- introducing various regions in particular to our foreign readers who are trying to better understand Turkey. These regions do not resemble any legal or geographically correct entities, and the labels are, of course, my personal choice, established simply for purposes of clarification. It would make sense to have a map of Turkey ready when reading this article as it simplifies my following introduction to Turkey's political geography. I am not repeating figures and data with regards to voter turnout or election results as such since they were widely publicized. What I will attempt is to try to put some of them into perspective though. It is meant to be a snapshot of Turkey's political landscape. I will only focus on two political parties; I will come back to this point towards the end of my article.

From Antalya via Kalkan to the Bodrum Peninsula and all the way up to İzmir, Turkish voters made a clear decision: they voted for the Republican People's Party (CHP) bar a few exceptions. While majorities slightly differ in Fethiye and as it seems things are moving, albeit very slowly, in Datça (moving in the AK Party's direction, that is) there cannot be any doubt: the "sunshine belt" is solidly in the hands of the national opposition. Many local politicians are trying their utmost to improve the infrastructure. However, I encountered a certain reluctance to follow in their footsteps when I spoke with some locals; I chatted with a restaurateur close to İzmir and she told me that she does not like foreigners and why do "we" buy their properties. She did have a flat to sell but would only sell it to Turkish buyers. I summed up my conversation as having met the wrong person in the wrong business in the wrong location -- after all, the sunshine belt is Turkey's tourism belt, too. In other words I detected an illogical choice of profession and location. Can we generalize? Of course not. But factors like this must be taken into account when analyzing the principal trend and how it will take shape in particular closer to Turkey's EU accession. Traveling further south to Kaş and Kalkan I found places I really like -- no difference in voter preference, but what a change in style. Local and "foreign" communities live happily side by side. What I want to say is that there are various types of voters to be found in various political parties' share of the electorate. It is wrong to assume that a majority of CHP voters are anti-foreigners, just as it is similarly wrong to assume that all AK Party voters are diehard Europeans.

Let us continue our electoral journey through the more central parts of Turkey. For me the "Turkish heartland" is represented by the color orange (or yellow) as was used in papers and on TV to visualize constituencies in which the AK Party won in 2009. A heartland to me is where values count more than elsewhere, where partisanship is strong and most business small, not multinational. It refers to voters who tend to understand who brings gradual economic benefits and when the economy temporarily develops the flu, do not change their party preference overnight, either. It refers to agrarian activity, although in decline. It refers to mid-sized towns and cities -- take Çorum, northeast of the Turkish capital city of Ankara as an example. It means high mountains and "salty lakes." It symbolizes the beautiful and seemingly endless Turkish landscape. Then again, change is about to happen: The first leg of the new high-speed train link between the capital and İstanbul is making a scheduled stop in Eskişehir.

Let us then talk about the three "Turkish Metropolises." Having an AK Party majority in the Turkish capital, Ankara, surprised me. I would have characterized its core voter base as being staunchly opposed to the current reform process of the present national government as Ankara symbolizes the old -- but slowly retiring -- Turkish bureaucracy and not necessarily those who want to embrace change or support EU membership. In a metaphorical way, for many of them "İstanbul is on a different planet" and "Diyarbakır -- is it really in Turkey?" Most people are civil servants or work at universities so the entrepreneurial spirit is mostly a non-starter. Keeping a job is more important than learning new skills -- the notion of life-long employment with the same company still prevails in Ankara, only this company is the state. Winning and holding on to Ankara against this backdrop is indeed a significant success for the AK Party.