Not only that, allow me to shed some light on a different aspect of resolving this dispute: What are Brussels and the European Union up to?I do not agree with much of the content of the very pro-EU, multi-language TV station Euronews. It is basically nothing more than a press briefing by EU officials turned TV program. Watching it more often you realize that it never challenges EU policies. Fair enough, one could say -- but why then not be honest and call it EU Commission TV? I do continue to watch it, though, as it is a perfect tool to learn about European officials' real viewpoints as well as their attitude vis-à-vis Turkey in particular. It would be an understatement to say Euronews simply mirrors Mrs. Angela Merkel's and Mr. Nicolas Sarkozy's "near anti-Turkey" sentiments; it actually goes one step further: It shows anything which portrays the country in a rather gloomy, if not outright negative, light -- news about Turkey only surface when there is a crisis, a bomb attack or a mass demonstration against the government. If European citizens have to solely rely on this channel to understand Turkey, we have to start worrying indeed!
I have to add a line about President Sarkozy here. I do not disagree with all his policies, of course. Only today did I hear about his plans to modernize Paris and bring the suburbs, or the infamous "banlieu," closer to the city center to, first, avoid social conflict and, second, create a greener Paris. So we have to distinguish. What I am criticizing is his Turkey policy when it comes to refusing to help Ankara reach its goal of full EU membership.
It was this past Thursday when I came across a very disturbing piece of "news" on Euronews, packaged as an interview with a number of pan-European students linked to a European movement which runs an office in the Armenian capital, Yerevan (Reporter, Euronews, April 30). While I know a fair number of European movements from my active days in Brussels, there are some I would recommend, others perhaps criticize as some are more federalist and others less so. Very few are openly supported by the European Commission, though, and these are the ones to watch to learn about where the EU thinks it should go in the future.
Having watched this program and seen the blue and yellow EU flag proudly gracing this movement's Yerevan offices, something else occurred to me: Would it be possible that Brussels is preparing to enlarge the EU eastward, i.e., give Armenia potential candidate status before Turkey has become a full member? Could it be that policy makers in Brussels think that opening doors to Armenia could pressure Ankara into making undue concessions? I am not arguing that this process has already begun, nor do I know whether such a policy for accession is hidden in an EU's bureaucrat's drawer. What I am saying, however, is that Ankara must play all its cards to make certain it isn't.
That is why I linked Cyprus with today's topic. Last week I wrote about how the EU made a grave mistake by allowing a non-reunified island to enter the EU. Perhaps another error of historic proportions could be in the making. This error would be to sidestep Turkey and pursue an enlargement policy toward other countries to help them join the block faster than Ankara.
Some European integrationists always looked eastward -- using the EU as instrument to destabilize communist neighbors. Once "neutralized," EU membership was offered. We all witnessed this project in its near-completion five years ago when eight former communist countries joined the EU. For many years it looked like this: Ex-communist state? Fast-track. Turkey? No track!
One scenario that should be avoided is that after the border gates between Turkey and Armenia are reopened, Yerevan becomes just another country similar to former Soviet-era states and will be invited to join the EU regardless of whether Turkey has already become a full member or not.
Where does this leave us with regard to the official as well as unofficial road maps toward normalizing ties between Armenia and Turkey? Let us not overlook a key factor: The Armenian diaspora knows how to lobby and has the funds to do so. Many citizen of Armenian origin occupy leading posts in politics and society in many countries. Agreeing to open the border with Turkey will have been discussed with these groups for a long time and I would be surprised if there is no catch involved.
Turkey can afford to negotiate from a position of strength. Its geopolitical role has changed -- it has become a much stronger actor than in the past millennium. We may applaud Ankara for having begun talks in earnest and we hope that the road map will indeed lead to a complete normalization of links between both countries. We must make sure, however, that Turkey is neither forced into accepting the "g-word" via the backdoor nor to alienate Azerbaijan.
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