These questions reveal three important features. We do not know the exact scope of the organization. It is like an iceberg; only one-tenth of this illegal structure has been exposed so far. The strong evidence of attempts to conceal and distort evidence, the establishment of subcontractor organizations and the hiring of shooters has attracted strong reaction and resistance.
The stance of the Turkish Armed Forces (TSK) is vague. Although some retired generals have voiced the importance of respecting the judiciary and have encouraged the military to hand over active-duty officers who are suspected of being involved in anti-democratic activities to the authorities, suspicions have increased over the military’s stance, especially after several retired generals who are indicted in the Ergenekon trial were transferred to the Gülhane Military Academy of Medicine (GATA) for medical treatment and are still being kept there. These suspicions cannot be ignored.
The first feature: The views of the TSK on the case. If the TSK had said: “We cannot allow this kind of a structure within our organization. Anti-democratic structures undermine our power, so we must get rid of it completely,” and took a clear stance against Ergenekon, the case would be concluded fairly. The most important point is to conclude the case while doing the least damage to the TSK and accelerating its recovery. Otherwise, our most trusted institution -- or rather our government -- will not be able to pull through this.
The second feature: the effect the Ergenekon case will have on democratization. This case will either make it harder to reach a social consensus, increase political tension and hinder democratic reforms or it will abide by the notion that “one is innocent until proven guilty and guilty until proven innocent” and allow the judiciary to function properly.
The third feature is foreign conjecture. The underlying issue here is Turkey’s membership in the European Union. What impact will Barack Obama’s speeches in Turkey and at the NATO summit have on Europe? Obama emphasized the US’s support for Turkey’s full membership in the EU. But Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy were quick to recall the stances of Germany and France, respectively. There are countries and people that support and oppose Turkey’s membership. The consensus among EU leaders will influence the path Turkey will take. If EU leaders pay heed to Obama’s emphasis that Turkey is a Muslim, secular and democratic country and view it as strategically important, then Turkey’s membership in the EU will be inevitable. Turkey’s membership is the strongest message that can be given to the Muslim world in order to achieve world peace and an alliance between civilizations.
Therefore, the course of the Ergenekon case will be linked to the consensus the EU and the US will reach on Turkey’s membership. If Turkey becomes a member of the EU, then the Ergenekon case will put an end to the era of military coups and remove any impediments to democracy in Turkey.
In short, this analysis suggests that the future is not yet clear. The tug of war continues. On one side, there are people who say, “Enough, let the truth come out and let Turkey be democratized,” and on the other, there are people who say, “The status quo is good for us, so we are not going to give up our places without putting up a tough fight.” The second side says, “These arrests are bad for Turkey,” while the first says, “What is really bad is that civilians are cooperating with coup planners.”
Both sides are pulling on the rope tightly -- but that’s no surprise considering the fact that the issue at hand is the “event of the century.” The next five years are going to be very important.
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