The new US administration seems to be determined to cooperate with Turkey in undertaking concrete and permanent projects in the Middle East and Eurasia. Armenia serves as an important benchmark for this cooperation as it will produce results in 2009. The joint declaration emphasized that the US will lend support to the efforts for normalization of Turkish-Armenian relations. The statements in the joint declaration imply that the Obama administration will make a statement that is close to Turkey's position on April 24, and at the same time, Turkey will soon declare that it will enter into a normalization process with Armenia.It has already become obvious that the thawing of ice between Turkey and Armenia started following Turkish President Abdullah Gül's visit to Yerevan to watch a football match on Sept. 6 will continue with new initiatives. For some time, the two countries have been holding secret talks in Europe. During his visit to İstanbul in his capacity as the term president of the Organization of the Black Sea Economic Cooperation (BSEC) to attend a ministerial gathering of the BSEC on Nov. 24, 2008, Armenian Foreign Minister Edward Nalbandian disclosed that Armenian President Serzh Sarksyan will visit Turkey in October 2009 upon an invitation from Gül.
In late March, a meeting of the transportation ministers of the BSEC will be held in Yerevan because Armenia is the term president. Turkey is expected to send its transportation undersecretary to this meeting. Foreign Minister Ali Babacan will attend the meetings of the Committee of Senior Officials of the BSEC to be held in Yerevan on April 15. There is also a meeting of energy ministers in late April, also to be held in Yerevan. Energy Minister Hilmi Güler is expected to attend this meeting. Until Azerbaijan takes office as the BSEC term president on May 1, a steady stream of ministers and top bureaucrats traveling from Turkey to Armenia is expected.
After the local elections slated for March 29 and before April 24, Turkey and Armenia are likely to make public their plan for normalizing relations. Thus, establishing diplomatic ties will be the first step of this plan. As a second step, border crossings will be opened. The two countries have already decided to set up a joint committee of historians. The total length of the border between Turkey and Armenia, which starts with border landmark No. 4 and ends with the border landmark No. 148, is 325 kilometers. There are two border crossings that are currently closed on this border: "Alican Highway Border Crossing" and "Akyaka Railway Border Crossing." Alican Highway Border Crossing is near the Alican village of Iğdır. Akyaka Railway Border Crossing is near the Akyaka district of Kars. The former name of Akyaka was Kızılçakçak. For this reason, the Akyaka Railway Border Crossing was formerly called "Kızılçakçak Gate." This border crossing, located 66 kilometers away from Kars, is known to the public as the "Eastern Gate," while Armenians tend to call it "Ahuryan Gate." In addition to the railway, there is a secondary country road that passes through this gate.
The biggest obstacle to the announcement and implementation of the normalization steps between Turkey and Armenia is the Armenian diaspora and the militant Karabakh Armenians. Sarksyan is afraid of being killed after announcing the process of normalization with Turkey. The Russian Federation lends support to the Turkish-Armenian rapprochement, while the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry seeks to express Baku's opinion through a meeting titled "Azerbaijani-Turkish Strategic Partnership and Regional Security" in Ankara in June. However, Baku should realize that it can no longer take Turkey's partnership as a given, as it used to be for years. It should be understood as well that Turkey has returned its attention to the Caucasus, which it neglected from the disintegration of the Ottoman Empire to the disintegration of the Soviet Union (1923-1991), and has started to be one of the forces influencing internal dynamics.
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