Iraq is expecting a visit from Obama and is preparing for critical elections in 2009. The provincial council elections will be held on Jan. 31.
This election is significant because provincial councils are authorized to appoint governments and other bureaucrats in provinces in Iraq. District and town council elections will be held in late June. The district and town councils are empowered to appoint district and town governors and other senior bureaucrats.
Turkmens do not have a majority in any of the provinces in Iraq. However, there are some districts and towns where they enjoy a sizable majority. This applies to Syriacs and Yazidis. According to the new Iraqi constitution, the district councils' authority is so vast that it can even declare an official language for that district. For this reason, district and town council elections are particularly important for Turkmens and other minorities in Iraq.
The parliamentary elections will be held in December. Also, the referendum for the Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) is expected to be held in mid-2009. This agreement had been approved by the presidential council and allows US soldiers to stay for three additional years with certain restrictions in Iraq.
If the security agreement is not approved in the referendum, the US soldiers may have to pull out at an earlier date, probably before mid-2010. Under the security agreement, Iraqi territories cannot be used for launching attacks on neighboring countries. The commission in Kirkuk is continuing with its work, and local elections are expected to be held in late 2009 or in 2010.
The impact of the attacks on Gaza on the elections that will be held in 2009 is a concern. It seems that the Gazan conflict is capable of boosting the influence of radical groups and anti-Western sentiments in the region. To what extent Gaza will influence the elections is unknown.
2009 is an important year also for Iraq for reasons other than elections. The polarization among Shiites, Kurds and Sunnis is now diminishing. This is increasing, and it will increase Turkey's influence as a moderate power on the region in the future. Iraq's stability has been ensured to a great extent. This will be followed by a wave of investment programs. Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki strengthened the Iraqi army, which in turn increased the grip of the central government. However, this is bothering the Kurds.
It is high time for Obama to decide what kind of Iraq he wants, starting with 2009.
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