Israel’s options

The rockets in question are of course mainly simple homemade projectiles, called Qassams by the Palestinians.

In fact the origins of the Qassam rockets can be traced to the second Palestinian intifada in late 2000, when Israel was in full control of the Gaza Strip. Qassams continued to rain on Israeli towns and settlements even after the Israeli army withdrew from the region in September 2005. A total of nearly 8,000 rockets and mortar shells have been fired at Israel to date, and the firing has continued unabated despite the massive and continuous bombing campaign.

The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) have been working hard for years to find a solution to end the rocket fire but with no effective results so far, despite the ongoing operation. In fact, this failure was admitted by the architect of "Cast Lead," Defense Minister Ehud Barak.

''The task of ending Qassam fire has still not been reached and the road is still long,'' Barak told delegates at a National Security Institute conference in Tel Aviv in January 2007. He further elaborated on the threat, saying that the situation in the Gaza Strip was difficult and complicated, but ''as we have found solutions in the past, here too we will find the solution. We are working on this endlessly and the solution will require consideration and responsibility.''

The solution Barak mentioned has two components to it: military and technological.

The military option, which has so far excluded a ground operation and has depended on bombing from the air and sea, does not seem to have achieved much in terms of ending rocket fire because Hamas and affiliated groups have continued their rocket fire with longer-range rockets, for the first time hitting Beersheba, which is about 40 kilometers from Gaza. Therefore, if aerial and naval bombing fails to stop rocket fire, Israel will be forced to initiate a desperate ground assault, which it is very reluctant to undertake because of unforeseen risks and likely casualties.

The technological solution, on the other hand, is years away. When completed, it will be a three-layer system. The first layer is called the "Iron Dome" and was developed by the Israeli defense company Rafael. And it is considered the most effective answer to the Qassam rockets. The second layer of the anti-missile system is called "David's Sling," which will tackle medium-range rockets like those fired by Hezbullah fighters at Israel during the Second Lebanon War last year. The third layer is the possible deployment of an already functional system called the Skyshield 35, which is a special weapon system developed by a Swiss company. This system consists of a high-powered rapid-fire cannon that fires a unique 35-mm advanced hit efficiency and destruction (AHEAD) shell to destroy incoming targets.

According to Barak, with regards to the Iron Dome, if all goes well Israel could do its first trials in two-and-a-half years, while David's Sling, a joint Israeli-US project would "take a little more time" than Iron Dome to reach the first trials. Therefore, in view of Barak's remarks, it is safe to assume that Israeli anti-rocket systems could be ready by 2011 at the earliest, and of course, this will only be achieved if everything goes well, as Barak himself admitted.

These are the options for Israel in regards to the Qassam rockets. The first one and the current one are a blind alley from which Israel has little chance of a safe exit and success while the second is futuristic. Therefore, it should not go further. Instead it should try to find another option along the lines of reconciliation and peace without delay.