Secret meetings are being held between the parties in Europe. Armenian Foreign Minister Edward Nalbandian, who arrived in İstanbul on Nov. 24 as the term president of the Organization of the Black Sea Economic Cooperation (BSEC), announced that Armenian President Serzh Sarksyan will pay a visit to Turkey in October 2009. Nalbandian added that they were supportive of the normalization of relations without any preconditions and that they were asking for the opening of the border on the same terms. The total length of the Turkish-Armenian border is 325 kilometers. There are two closed gates along this line: the Alican land border gate and the Akyaka Railway border gate. The first is located in the village of Alican in Iğdır province, while the latter is in Akyaka in Kars. The former name of Akyaka is Kızılçakçak; for this reason, the former name of the Akyaka Railway border gate is the Kızılçakçak gate. This gate, 66 kilometers from Kars, is publicly known as Doğu Kapı, whereas Armenians call it Ahuryan gate. In addition to a railway, the gate also includes a byroad.
In the aftermath of the Azeri-Armenian war, which lasted until 1994, 40,000 people had to leave Nagorno-Karabakh and 700,000 left seven other provinces of Azerbaijan because of the Armenian invasion. As a result, 13 percent of Azerbaijani people had to survive as migrants within their own country, 20 percent of which was occupied by Armenian forces. Thus, Turkey closed its border with Armenia in April 1993 and its air space in 1994. However, it is not accurate to attribute these moves to Armenian aggression alone. Armenia asserts that the 1920 Treaty of Alexandropol and 1921 Treaty of Kars, which set the borderline between Armenia and Turkey, are no longer valid. Armenian also defined Turkey's eastern territories as western Armenia in its declaration of independence proclaimed on Aug. 23, 1990. In addition, the official coat of arms of the Armenian state, as thoroughly depicted in the second paragraph of Article 13 of the Armenian constitution, includes Mount Ararat, a part of Turkey. Yerevan also avoids recognition of Turkey's territorial integrity.
Why were bold steps taken as late as September 2008 to normalize the bilateral relations between the two countries despite these thorny issues? Could the primary reason for this be the European attempt to relieve Georgia, which has been alienated in the Southern Caucasus in the aftermath of the war in August? Is it because the West wanted to take Armenia on its side? The Euro-Atlantic world is resolute in improving its relations with Armenia, a predominantly Christian country, after Georgia. Armenian intellectuals also want their country to be integrated into the West. They ask for a smooth transition from the system inherited from the Soviet era to a Western-style parliamentary democracy and institutionalization of a democratic order where human rights and a free market economy are the dominant factors. Armenian intellectuals are particularly uneasy about the ownership of Armenian industries by Russian capital and the heavy presence of Russian military in the country.
According to the Euro-Atlantic world and Armenian intellectuals, Armenia's integration with the West and the democratic world will be possible if it establishes normal relations with Turkey, which is ruled by democracy. In addition, according to unofficial figures, the foreign trade volume between the two countries has increased from $30 million in 1997 to $250 million in 2008. Considering the current foreign trade volume of Turkey with Azerbaijan and Georgia and the current state of Armenian economy, it is obvious that the existing figures with respect to foreign trade volume between Armenia and Turkey will not become any better even if the borders are opened. For these reasons, opening the border gates is a political rather than economic issue. It is a project that will enable Armenia's democratization and its integration with the West.
Armenia will maintain term presidency in BSEC for six months. If Yerevan is able to take bold steps vis-a-vis Turkey during this period, Turkey may proceed with opening the closed border gates in 2009. And if Armenia offers a plausible plan of withdrawal from occupied Azerbaijani territories and declares that it recognizes Turkey's territorial integrity, Turkey will be ready to take reciprocal steps and moves. Initiation of border trade and establishment of low-level diplomatic relations may follow the opening of the border gates. However, if Moscow takes action and pursues new policies vis-a-vis Armenia and Azerbaijan, the Euro-Atlantic world may be disappointed. Moreover, considering the rapprochement between Turkey and Armenia, the Baku administration may take action to mobilize actors of Turkish domestic politics in an attempt to disrupt Turkey's improved relations with Armenia.
In conclusion, it is not logical or meaningful for the Turkish, Armenian and Azerbaijani people, who have been living together for thousands of years, to disrupt their common future because of the relatively insignificant issues that have emerged in recent decades. The Southern Caucasus needs permanent stability; and peoples there need peace and welfare.
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