In parallel to the rising excitement, the race between Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama and Republican John McCain is heating up. The latest polls show that the US public opinion has started, with an unexpected twist, to favor the more experienced McCain, who is likely to maintain Bush's policies, over the young Obama, who promises radical change. According to Gallup's latest public opinion poll, McCain has a five-point lead, with 49 percent, over Obama. On the other hand, world opinion, not content with the unilateral policies of the US administration led by Bush for the last eight years, is watching the presidential race with concern for the possibility of this gap widening in time.US voters, who according to the results of the latest surveys give the impression that they prefer stability to change, are distancing themselves from the expectations of the international community. One can justifiably ask whether an ordinary US voter should worry about the sentiments of the international community. If the election in question is for selecting the leader of a country like the US, whose policies closely interest the entire world, one can suggest that the people who will vote in this election should pay attention to the expectations of the international community.
When we have a look at preferences and expectations of international public opinion, we see that they are radically different from US public opinion. The results of the Transatlantic Trends survey, conducted by the German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMF), clearly show the global patterns of preference concerning the US presidential candidates. For instance, 69 percent of Europeans viewed Senator Obama favorably, compared with 26 percent who viewed Senator McCain favorably. Only 20 percent of Europeans viewed both candidates favorably.
Meanwhile, all 22 countries in a BBC World Service poll would prefer that Obama be elected US president instead of McCain. Obama is preferred by a four-to-one margin on average across the 22,000 people polled. The margin in favor of Obama ranges from just 9 percent in India to 82 percent in Kenya. On average 49 percent prefer Obama to 12 percent favoring McCain. Nearly four in 10 do not take a position.
The poll also explored the expected impact of the US election. In 17 of the 22 countries surveyed, the most common view is that if Obama is elected president, America's relations with the rest of the world are likely to improve. If McCain is elected, the most common view in 19 countries is that relations will stay about the same as they are now. On average 46 percent think that US relations with the world would get better with Obama, 22 percent that relations would stay the same and 7 percent that they would worsen. However, only 20 percent think relations would improve under McCain. The largest number -- 37 percent -- think relations under a McCain presidency would stay the same and 16 percent think they would deteriorate. The countries most optimistic that an Obama presidency would improve relations are America's NATO allies -- Canada (69 percent), France (62 percent), Germany (61 percent), the United Kingdom (54 percent) and Italy (64 percent) -- as well as Australia (62 percent) and African countries Kenya (87 percent) and Nigeria (71 percent).
We know that Turkish public opinion has similar perceptions about Obama and McCain. Moreover, the reactions to the policies pursued by the Bush administration show themselves not only in candidate preferences but also in overall sentiments about the US. According to the GMF survey, Turkish respondents continued to have the most critical views of US leadership in world affairs. Only 8 percent of respondents viewed US leadership as "desirable," compared to 22 percent who viewed EU leadership as "desirable." Only 8 percent of respondents viewed President Bush's handling of international affairs favorably, although the percentage who viewed him unfavorably declined by 12 percentage points to 71 percent.
The international community's reactions to the Bush administration's policies could be clearly seen in the previous polls. Surveys conducted by PEW had indicated that the US was suffering from a radical erosion of prestige and image under the Bush administration. The rate of respondents favoring US policies had even dropped to a mere 7 percent in Turkey. The presidential election scheduled for November offers a big opportunity for the US to halt the ongoing loss of prestige attributable to the Bush administration.
At this point, I must note that although in Turkey and around the world there are harsh criticisms and reactions to the policies pursued by the Bush administration, hope for the US's return to its traditional status as a country of freedoms is still harbored. In other words, the global reactions target the Bush administration rather than the US in general. The decision to be made by US voters on Nov. 4 will show to what extent they are compatible with global sentiments. As a result of this election, either the US will continue to distance itself from world public opinion, or a new process will start to repair the bridges between the US and the world devastated by the policies pursued over the last eight years.
Individually, each US voter should note that the decision s/he will make interests not only him/her, but also about 6.5 billion people in the world. US voters must make their choices knowing that the ballots they cast are important for all countries, especially Iraq, Iran, Palestine and Afghanistan.
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